On the Doorstep of History

The Dow Jones Industrial Average came within less than a single point of Dow 20,000 before it wavered and stumbled, finally closing at 19,963 on Friday.  There are interesting micro trends that might have conspired against making history, including the fact that investors continue to pile into the same names while eschewing others.  Actually, there were more losers on the NYSE and NASDAQ while 55% of the volume on the NYSE was to the downside.  Money rotated out of Trump building names, such as Vulcan Materials (VMC) into technology stocks, including Amazon (AMZN).

The market probably feeds more off of wages in the employment report than the lackluster overall number.  A 2.5% wage increase in November was followed by 2.9% in December, the best since June 2009, and it seems poised to be the recurring theme this year.

The question is whether the stock market rally will be the biggest recurring financial story of 2017?  At this point, it all comes down to execution. However, both the new administration and corporate America are going to have to hit their marks and move the narrative along in deed and purpose. 

Meanwhile, 2017 has been all about technology, which makes perfect sense.  Beyond Silicon Valley’s beef with Donald Trump and desire for more foreign workers, America’s tech names are leading the world in the Knowledge Century, which has already begun.  While the Dow may be on the doorstep of a major milestone, the doorstep to global preeminence is critically more important.

• NASDAQ Composite +2.6% YTD
• S&P 500 +1.7% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.0% YTD

Russell 2000 +0.6% YTD