Last week, I had a potential subscriber who told me he was worried about the market because it was too volatile. I have heard this many times this year, although there have been periods of time when the market has moved sideways. In fact, several periods have established new records.
We enter the week with the S&P 500 trading between 2,200 and 2,100 for 64-days straight which feels intense; however, it’s anything but volatile. I am not sure about the changes this week with the economic calendar:
- National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs)
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes
- Import/Export Prices
- Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Retail Sales
- Business Inventories
So, the breakout for the S&P 500 is clear at 2,200 on a closing basis. On the downside, 2,100 is not a lot to stop the index from hitting 2,000, which is something akin to a must-hold support point.
I will say the fact that the Volatility Index (VIX) is down, 26% year-to- date; it might be a sign of complacency. But I must also underscore the fact that we shouldn’t conflate complacency with overconfidence. This continues to be the most hated rally in history, one of its greatest attributes.
We enter the week with a market that’s very tepid and by no means cocky, but it does need a spark.
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