The market continues its amazing resolve but it’s also still trading in a range and still seeking a catalyst to get a sustained move that would push the naysayers in a corner. The debate is what such a catalyst would look like. I say it would be good news- period. There is a debate over what is good news. I would say it’s not 140,000 jobs and zero wage growth. Imagine, I was actually dissing 200,000 jobs as being mediocre, and last month, we didn’t even come close.
I’m intrigued with the rebound attempt in commodities and individual battles to save names like Glencore (huge insider buying) and Freeport McMoRan (Icahn gets two board seats). The spike in oil came to an abrupt halt after an unexpected higher inventory build but has exhibited amazing resolve that hints at major news on the horizon. (I continue to think turmoil in Saudi Arabia is from the power struggle among their royalty to the expense of fighting wars and becoming a Sunni leader across the region as the Shia continue to flex their muscle.)
There is no reason to think commodities should be significantly higher based on what we know, but there could be things happening that the market senses – the traditional role of markets before it was hi-jacked by high frequency traders and short term trading. All financial assets are looking for leaders including NASDAQ coming off a perfect double bottom without Apple. The index needs to clear 4890.
NASDAQ
This morning initial jobless cliams report of 263,000 – 13,000 is the lowest level in 42 years, and the four 4 week moving average 267,500. Its seems so confusing that so few are now filing for such claims while job openings are multiyear highs and actual job creation would be this lackluster.
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I think this is the word of the year: lackluster, but it could change in the final quarter of the year. It could wind up being disappointing, or resolved, or impressive. If there are to be accolades, then the market will have to continue to find ways to make improbable intra-day reversals.
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