It was the worst week for the market this year after the first down week in more than a month, which makes this week critical as a gauge of investor sentiment. That sentiment is driven by a combination of current news and conventional wisdom about the future.
Current news is actually a combination of past news with occasional up to date alerts that shake up recent trends. Last week it was pretty clear that current news is that the economy is in more trouble than many thought and yet the media pushed a different narrative.
[img align="right" src="http://www.wstreet.com/shared/images/030497/box.png">The notion stocks were down on Fed tapering is silly unless you think the Fed is tapering as a sign of surrender. Otherwise, current news doesn't portent to an economy ready to zoom without training wheels. News from retailers was most alarming.
In the absence of big time economic data, this week looks to retail earnings and guidance to set the pace and sway conventional wisdom. I think there could be lots of disappointment, in part because the Street is dragging its feet adjusting estimates (see table).
We are nowhere in being even near reality at the moment. Some purists like it that way as they consider such moves dangerously unstoppable once there's a full head of steam. While I'm inclined to agree with respect to individual consumers, I'm not sure businesses will ever become so rambunctious as to bite off more than they can chew (Case in point, I was told over the weekend by someone on the ground in Benton Colorado that Wal-Mart just halted construction on a mega warehouse facility on 40 acres that once boasted trucks would be entering or leaving every 10 seconds).
Thus far Americans have only taken the credit bait to purchase new automobiles. In the second quarter auto loan originations increased $92.0 billion, climbing to the highest level since the third quarter of 2007. Let's face it, stars have finally aligned perfectly for the auto industry with the average ride clocking in at almost 13 years old and rates on loans as low as they've ever been for most buyers (see table below).
At some point it could be a huge disaster for taxpayers who would be on the hook for any rescue or meltdown but seem to be shutout from current benefits, which actually help the children of non-payers of federal income taxes.
Revolving
Will it go round in circles
Will it fly high like a bird up in the sky
Will it go round in circles
Will it fly high like a bird up in the sky
I've got a story, ain't got no moral
Billy Preston
There is pent-up demand for stuff, but it's unlikely anything else we'd spend money on is as old or broken down as a 13 year old vehicle. But we don't save money (see table below), and we aren't making money, as a consequence Americans have run out of money! For the retail sector to improve, wages will have to increase, confidence will have to bloom, and shoppers will have to say "credit" rather than "debit" or "cash."
In the meantime, it's going round in circles when we all want retail to fly high like a bird up in the sky- for the right reasons.
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