The old adage that location is everything has taken on a new meaning during warfare here in Israel.
Real estate in Israel is like it is everywhere else in the world. Apartments (forget about free-standing homes which are relatively rare) for a million dollars or more in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv are common. And we’re not talking about incredible places with pools and breathtaking views. No, a fourth floor walk-up with three bedrooms in a desirable neighborhood starts at over a million bucks.
But location also has a different meaning in Israel. One of the aspects of the Iron Dome system that is not discussed much is its radar/computer. Upon a launch of a projectile, the radar immediately picks up its trajectory. There is a calculation as to where the rocket or missile should land, using basic parabolic trajectory considerations. The landing spot is determined. If it is an empty area, no Iron Dome missile is expended on the incoming projectile. If it is approaching a built-up area, then missiles are fired to destroy the target. The system is by no means perfect, and several deadly attacks involved either the radar missing the target or the target being forgotten/lost by the human actors in the system.
The idea of location has now been extended. Israel, for better or worse, has warned Arabs both in Gaza and in Lebanon about impending military action. Either a “knock knock” with a dud bomb on the roof or mass phone calls/SMS messages is used to get people out of a building. I have always thought the system was stupid, as terrorists also exit the targeted structures. There was a case two weeks ago in which a family got a phone call to get out of their home. An hour later, they received another call to say that there were no planes available and that they could go home. The next morning they were again told to leave, and yes, this time, the house was blown to smithereens. If it weren’t war, it would be comical.
Apparently, the Israelis have determined that what is good for the goose is good for the gander. My wife and I each received an SMS from city hall with a link. Opening the link showed the city of Jerusalem divided into five different colored areas. I had seen maps like this before for parking zones, where each region has its own parking tag. This time it was different. Apparently, if, God forbid, there is a projectile heading towards the Holy City, then the radar/computer/operators will determine which specific part of the city is in danger of impact. Anyone in that region will receive an immediate message/robocall to get to a “miklat”--reinforced room or bomb shelter. While Israel uses Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow 4 and other systems to shoot down incoming missiles and drones, the systems are not 100% perfect. Sometimes things get through, and at other times the debris from the projectile and/or its interceptor can be as dangerous as the explosive itself. Patriot missiles famously cost over $1 million apiece. The Iron Dome interceptors cost around $50,000 a pop, and they usually shoot two per target. Most people have seen the nighttime ballet of missiles going up and engaging Hamas rockets or Hezbollah missiles.
Through World War 2, most wartime casualties were caused by artillery shells. One of the most important and secret developments of World War 2 was the proximity fuse. This fuse has a small radar unit that can cause a shell to explode at a predetermined distance from the ground or from say an airplane. The invention was so sensitive that the Allies did not use it against Germany, where a dud might fall into Nazi hands and be copied. They were exclusively used against the Japanese, where a failed shell would fall into the ocean. Against Japanese planes, the proximity fuse decreased the number of shells required to knock out a kamikaze plane by a factor of 7. When things got hairy during the Battle of the Bulge, proximity fuses were introduced into the European theater where they killed a lot of exposed German troops. A normal shell would hit the ground, explode, and spray shrapnel and dirt on opposing troops. A proximity fuse would lead to an airburst explosion that led to far more shrapnel being sent directly against dug-in enemy troops below.
The Iran-Israel war is apparently heading into Round 2. The killing of Ismael Haniyeh in a Revolutionary Guard guest house just outside of Tehran apparently was a big enough embarrassment to the mullahs that they seek revenge. The Iranians, like the Arabs, don’t give a hoot about the Palestinians. They are simply a tool to get at the Jews/Israelis. But an attack on their land and under their noses apparently was too much to simply ignore. Projectiles from Iran take two hours or more to reach Israel, so there is time to get ready, move to a protected area, and activate anti-missile systems. Hezbollah rockets come much faster, and the two closest big cities—Haifa and Tiberias—are minutes away by air. If there is physical damage but no one killed, Israel will probably call it a draw. If God forbid there are dead Israelis, then Round 3 will be on its way.
Israel has developed aerial defense systems that take into account the expected impact point of a missile. Uninhabited areas are ignored so as to save on interceptors. The first round of Iranian projectiles led to most being destroyed prior to reaching Israel or by Israel’s own systems. If the outcome of Round 2 is the same, then the Iranians will once again be shown as impotent with their ballistic missile and drone forces. Then the time will come to wipe out their nuclear production facilities.
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