Voters in blue states keep voting for the same politicians offering the same failed policies. Why do voters consistently vote against their interests?
John Fetterman should have been easily defeated in the 2022 Pennsylvania senatorial race. He suffered a serious stroke during the Democratic primaries and then moved on to the general election against Dr. Mehmet Oz. Fetterman could not understand questions put to him. He needed to read those questions on a computer screen. When he answered, oftentimes it was not clear what he was saying or if it had anything to do with the question asked. He kept dressing and continues to dress as if he is permanently at an Addams Family getaway. After entering the senate, he almost immediately took a leave to deal with depression. If there was ever a candidate who was beatable, John Fetterman was the man.
Dr. Oz’s loss can be chalked up to his inexperience as a politician, or his close relationship with former president Trump or the poor performance of the Republican candidate for governor, Doug Mastriano. Still, in a state reeling from high gas prices, stubborn inflation for food and other necessities, reduced fracking, increased crime such as carjacking in big cities, it would appear that Pennsylvania should have been ripe for the picking for any pro-business, pro-police type of candidate. While Dr. Oz apparently made a very serious effort to get around the state and put forth Republican policy solutions, he still lost to a man who can barely communicate and dresses as if someone had stolen his clothes from the Ross changing room. But this phenomenon is not isolated to the Keystone State. AOC famously drove away very high-paying Amazon jobs from her district and still easily won both a primary and her reelection. Maxine Waters has paid her family a fortune from her political takings while her district suffers from many of the California problems. She easily gets reelected time after time. And as for California, a recall effort yielded a loss for Larry Elder, who was famously dubbed “the black face of white supremacy” by the Official Democratic Media. California is suffering from cities filled with homeless encampments, outdoor drug use, and crime, as well as crumbling roads, not enough water due to failed policies, and too many illegal aliens. Gavin Newsom should have been shown the door but he beat the younger Elder and remains one of the bright lights in the Democratic bench under the age of 80.
Losses such as those in Pennsylvania and California can be written off to poor candidates. Both men mentioned above were very bright and articulate and supported the Republican views on all relevant issues. And they—and many others—lost. So why do people who suffer high inflation and increased crime keep voting for the same people—governors, DA’s, mayors, and representatives to Congress--who have brought destruction upon them? Why would the voters in NY not want another Giuliani or Bloomberg with proactive policing and pro-small business policies? In short, when things in the country seem so bad and when so many Americans say that the country is headed in the wrong direction, why can’t those whose policies are pro-America make more gains in areas that suffer the most from failed liberal leadership?
One answer may be related to scale. Say you scan many news sites all day long, and during 24 hours you read about a dozen heinous acts in New York—someone pushed into subway tracks, a stabbing at a bodega, random shootings, smash and grab and the like. Your view is that New York is nothing but a cauldron of violence, something like its portrayal in the Death Wish movies of the 1970’s. Yet, New York has millions of citizens and plenty of visitors. The violent events and others like them affected a near-zero percentage of the total population. So maybe many New Yorkers do not feel that they are in great danger due to a Soros DA who routinely lets criminals back on the street or gives minor charges for major crimes. I know from living in Israel that since most news shows violence, many people think that Israelis are in the throes of chaos around the clock, day in and day out. When I explain that life here is generally quite normal, they think that I am lying to them. So maybe some large percentage of New Yorkers think that the failed policies of De Blasio and Adams are just fine because they can afford higher prices, can learn to live with a dirtier city and have not personally been mugged, shot, stabbed, pushed in front of a train or beaten up. Many New Yorkers have moved out, but those left still vote overwhelmingly Democratic. The invasion of illegal aliens and the effect on daily life may have a future electoral impact, but I have not heard of any recall effort for the new mayor who famously asked citizens to take illegal aliens into their homes.
So the Republicans have had some clunker candidates (though they have had some good ones like Paul Laxalt who lost in Nevada) and maybe not all Californians, New Yorkers, etc. feel the pain at the pump or at the grocery store, but there are so many who feel that America is failing and do not support the Democrats’ trans push or their fixation with climate hysteria. Even so, the best polls have Biden pretty much even with Trump or DeSantis. If things are as bad as we believe they are and as many Americans claim, Biden should be polling in the 30’s at best, but here he is tied with whatever the Republicans throw at him at around 47 or 48%. Why? It would seem that we are living in an age of reality-resistant voters. Just like antibiotic-resistance bacteria simply beat back whatever drug is used against them, our 2023 voter simply does not care that crime is rising, food and gas are too expensive, schools are trying to destroy their children’s future, and America’s military is focused on pronouns and not Chinese divisions. I know that orthodox Jews supported Donald Trump in excess of 90%; non-orthodox denominations were around 76% in favor of Joe Biden. Their support goes back to the very liberal views of such coreligionists and nothing would cause them to support Trump, even with the latter having moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and having been very supportive of Israel and Jews during his presidential term. They vote liberal and that’s it. Such an approach seems to apply also to many black voters who vote in huge numbers for Democrats though those same Democrats have singlehandedly run failed cities like Chicago, Baltimore, and Philadelphia for decades. It would seem that nothing can change their voting patterns. Well-meaning Republicans try to explain why supporting candidates who want to make their voters’ lives better and their cities safer and more prosperous rarely lead to any change in voting behavior. Hispanic voters have noticeably moved more towards the Republican party during the past few cycles, but college-educated women, blacks, and certain other groups simply vote Democratic, no matter how bad things are in their cities or states where they live. Whatever Republicans have to say simply falls on deaf ears.
One might be tempted to relish Democratic states and cities going down the tubes—you voted for these people and their policies, you deserve the hellscape they have given you! But around 40% or more voted against the Democrat and still suffer the consequences. And what happens in those cities and states may very well be coming to a red state near you more quickly than you think as many blue state residents have moved to friendlier states and appear to have brought their political beliefs with them.
So how do we overcome such recalcitrant voters? Donald Trump did it in 2016 when his charismatic focus on the border, the threats from China, and a more prosperous America brought many to vote Republican for the first time in their lives. But one can be new only once and a lot of people (53% if polls are to be believed) say that they will never vote for Trump, period. I do not believe that any of the other current Republican candidates for president is so inspiring as to potentially cause Democratic voters to switch sides in great numbers. But that is what is needed. Whoever is the Republican candidate must convince a large number of Democratic voters that the time has come to vote for their and their children’s futures and not just vote Democratic as they and their parents have always done. Who can do it? That is the question to be answered in the Republican primaries next year.
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