Nate Silver: 'This Is Undeniably a Bearish Newsletter for Democrats'

I know some of you don’t like Nate Silver. Liberals didn’t want him because he gave Donald Trump a near-60 percent chance of winning the 2024 election until the Kamala Harris switcheroo generated some momentum, but it’s now stalled. The former president has retaken the driver’s seat in his Electoral College projection. And Silver listed 24 reasons why Harris could lose on Election Day. Sure, Silver has written lengthy posts to cover his bases should his projections blow up. Still, these reasons are something many of you know about, including some liberal writers who have been floored at Kamala’s decline since September.

The liberal media establishment can’t understand how Kamala is failing against Trump. Silver provides a laundry list as to why that’s the case, not least being that she’s an abysmal candidate who seems incapable of defining herself: 

1. Harris is the favorite to win the popular vote, but the Electoral College bias favors Republicans by about 2 percentage points. In an era of intense partisanship and close elections, this is inherently difficult for Democrats to overcome. 
2. Inflation hit a peak of 9.1 percentage points in June 2022. It has abated now, but prices remain much higher than when Joe Biden took office, and voters are historically highly sensitive to inflation. Democrats can also plausibly be blamed for it given intensive increases in government spending during COVID recovery efforts. 
3. Though the reasons for this are much debated, voter perceptions about the economy lag substantially behind objective data, and growth in take-home income has been sluggish for many years for the working class amid rising corporate profits. 
4. Incumbent parties worldwide are doing very poorly, and the historical incumbency advantage has diminished to the point where it may now be an incumbency handicap instead given perpetually negative perceptions about the direction of the country. 
5. Populism is often a highly effective strategy, and many Trump voters are indeed “deplorable” in the Hillary Clinton sense of the term. 
6. Illegal/unauthorized immigration increased substantially during the first few years of the Biden/Harris administration amid a rising global backlash to immigration. 
7. Harris ran far to her left in 2019, adopting many unpopular positions, and doesn’t really have a viable strategy for explaining her changing stances. 
8. The cultural vibes are shifting to the right, and the left continues to pay a price for the excesses of 2020 on COVID, crime, “wokeness,” and other issues. 
9. Voters have nostalgia for the relatively strong economic performance in the first three years of Trump’s term and associate the problems of 2020 with Democrats, even though they weren’t in charge at the time. 
10. Democrats’ dominance among Black voters and other racial and ethnic minority groups is slipping. It may be unfortunate timing: the memory of the Civil Rights Era is fading. Educational polarization, which implies deteriorating Democratic performance among working-class voters of all races, may also be coming to dominate other factors. It’s possible this works out well for Democrats if Harris makes corresponding gains among white voters, who pack more leverage in the Electoral College, but there’s no guarantee. 
11. Many men, especially young men, feel lost amidst declining college enrollment, contributing to a rightward shift and a growing gender gap. 
12. Biden sought to be president until he was 86. Voters had extremely reasonable objections to this, and it neuters what should have been one of Harris’s best issues about Trump’s age and cognitive fitness. 
13. Harris also got a late start to her race, inheriting most of the staff from the poorly-run Biden campaign. She’s proven to be a good candidate in many respects, but it’s always a big leap when the understudy is suddenly thrust into the spotlight. 
14. Harris is seeking to become the first woman president. In the only previous attempt, undecideds broke heavily against Hillary Clinton, and she underperformed her polls. 
15. Trust in media continues to fall to abysmal levels. One can debate how to attribute blame for this between longstanding conservative efforts to discredit the media, a secular decline in trust in institutions, and various overreaching and hypocrisy in the press. But it’s hard for even legitimate Trump critiques to penetrate the mass public. Trump’s conviction on a series of felony charges hardly made any difference, for instance. 
16. Trump has traits of a classic con man, but con artistry is often effective, and Trump is skilled at convincing voters that he’s on their side even if his election would not be in their best interest. Furthermore, Trump presents Democrats with a Three Stooges Syndrome problem: a range of plausible attacks so vast that they tend to cancel one another out. 
17. Democrats’ college-educated consultant class has poor instincts for how to appeal to the mass public, while Trump has done more to cultivate support among “weird” marginal voting groups. 
18. Democrats’ argument that Trump is a critical threat to democracy is valid and important, given January 6 and Trump’s broad disrespect for the rule of law. But it’s a tough sell: ultimately, January 6 was a near-miss — it could very, very easily have been much, much worse — and Democrats hold the White House, the Senate, and many key governorships now. It isn’t intuitive to voters that democracy is threatened and Democrats may have staked too many chips on this line of attack. 
19. Foreign policy might not matter much to voters, but the world has become more unstable under Biden’s tenure. There has been a decline in democracy worldwide and an increase in interstate conflict, crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, deteriorating US-China relations, increasing immigration flows because of global instability, and a pullout from Afghanistan that negatively impacted Biden’s popularity. 
20. The Israel-Hamas war split the Democratic base in a way no comparable issue has split the GOP base.
21. There are more left-leaning third-party candidates than right-leaning ones, and the former leading third-party candidate (RFK Jr.) endorsed Trump and undermined Harris’s post-convention momentum. 
22. The richest man in the world, Elon Musk, has become a huge Trump stan and is doing everything in his power to tip the election to him. Twitter/X remains an influential platform among journalists but has shifted far to the right. Elon and Silicon Valley have also created a permission structure for other wealthy elites to advocate for Trump explicitly and provided a new base of money and cultural influence.
23. Trump was very nearly killed in an assassination attempt, and then there was a second one against him. The first attempt was closely correlated with an increase in favorability ratings for Trump, and polling shows he’s considerably more popular and sympathetic than in 2016 or 2020. 
24. Harris has been running on vibes and has failed to articulate a clear vision for the country. It might have been a good strategy if the “fundamentals” favored her, but they don’t. 

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Ignore the anti-Trump peppering in the list. You knew those were coming, but the fact that there are two dozen reasons why Kamala is a flop as we head into the final weeks of the race is telling. I do like Silver calling out the uber-left, hyper-condescending Democratic consulting class who are so weird they don’t know how to talk to real people. 

We have good indicators heading into Election Day, but stay focused, vote, and keep the pedal to the metal here.

***

UPDATE: I don't usually do this, but "STM-33" listed another 20 reasons that deserve some attention:

 1. Kamala Harris has never been "middle class" and is the offspring of two foreign-born college professors, and they provided Kamala a prosperous childhood ensconced amidst the Ivory Towers of academia.

2. Kamala Harris’ mother comes from the Indian Brahmin caste, which sits atop India’s horrifically backward and oppressive caste system. Her father comes from a family of wealthy Jamaican slave plantation owners.

3. Kamala Harris’ father was an influential Marxist economist.

4. Kamala Harris spent her formative teen-age years living in Montreal, Canada. At no time in her formative years did Harris ever live what is customarily referred to as “The African-American Experience”; or, for that matter, the American working class experience.

5. Kamala Harris failed the California bar exam.

6. Kamala Harris rose to political prominence in California thanks to the support of a much older, married and influential Democrat pol, Willie Brown, with whom she was having sex while he advanced her career.

7. As California’s Attorney General, Kamala Harris knowingly engaged in numerous unfair and unethical legal practices that wrongfully denied many, many unjustly-incarcerated black men their freedom and liberty.

8. As a Senator from California, Kamala Harris was ranked by many non-partisan political analysts as the most extreme Leftist in the Senate.

9. Running as a Democrat Presidential candidate in 2020, while being incredibly well-funded, Kamala Harris nevertheless polled at the bottom of all major candidates and was one of the very first to withdraw. This was widely perceived to be a function of her unlikeability and her inability to offer cogent campaign positions of substance.

10. Joe Biden explicitly stated that he hired Harris BECAUSE she is a black woman. Thus, it is entirely fair to label her a “DEI hire.”

11. Kamala Harris as Vice President has had an unusually high staff turnover rate exceeding 90%.

12. The media is extremely hard-pressed to recount a single accomplishment of Harris as VP. Quite the opposite, they have white-washed her title as “Border Czar” as she failed to do anything to stop open border allowing in 10 -12 million illegals; including known terrorists, cartels, thousands of criminals, drug and sex traffickers and the Chinese made fentanyl that has killed a quarter of a million American citizens.

13. Prior to becoming the Presidential candidate, Kamala Harris had the lowest VP approval ratings of any VP since Spiro Agnew.

14. Kamala Harris knew that Joe Biden had dementia, and lied to us for 3 1/2 years, covering up his mental incompetency.

15. Kamala Harris, along with Barack Obama and other Democrat luminaries, engaged in some form of extortion to force Joe Biden to step aside as the Democrat Presidential nominee in 2024, so she could assume that mantle herself.

16. Kamala Harris never received a single primary vote in favor of the candidacy she seized from Joe Biden.

17. As the Presidential candidate, Kamala Harris was spurned by most of the Democrat party luminaries to be her VP candidate, and instead she settled for Tim Walz, an extreme leftist who has passed laws in Minnesota allowing for abortion up until birth and making MN. a "sanctuary city" for minors who opt for chemical castration or permanent life altering physical surgery; even without their parents permission.

18. Kamala Harris has been the Democrat Presidential candidate for approximately three months, and her only two policy prescriptions are communist style price controls and promising an illegal $25,000 government gift for first time home buyers.

19. Kamala Harris has never worked in a private business in her adult life.

20. Kamala Harris has stated that she "hasn't changed her values" and we should believe her as she has a more than 20 year video record of being for; no border, abolishing ICE, government paid health insurance for illegals (and even paying for their transgender surgeries), gun confiscation, no bail policies, defunding the police, abolishing private health insurance, unlimited abortion and chemical castration and/or permanent physical mutilation of minors in the name of "gender affirmation".