It’s been said for a long time now, but Trump has zero shot of winning the presidency should he lose Florida. Like in 2000 with Bush and Gore, it’s Florida. Florida. Florida. In terms of early voting, CNN noted that the GOP has a 16,000-vote advantage with the early voters. Over 4.2 million Floridians have already cast their ballots—with a three-point drop in African American participation. Though Hispanic participation has spiked at least four points since 2008; CNN could only find 2008 as the election with comparable data. CNN’s executive politics editor Mark Preston mentioned that the Clinton campaign has to get out the vote for groups that are decidedly Democratic (i.e. black voters) come election day. It’s the reason why President Barack Obama is descending into the Sunshine State today. Preston also mentioned North Carolina's early voting numbers, where there's also a drop in black voter turnout and a significant bump in white turnout.
Over at CBS News, elections director Anthony Salvanto broke down the key counties, noting that Clinton needs to replicate the turnout Obama had in Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties. They comprise the southern part of the state; Obama won 62 percent of the vote in 2010 in Miami-Dade. But Clinton isn’t Obama. And Obama has been on an unprecedented rescue mission to drag Clinton over the top in the remaining days of the campaign. Also, Salvanto noted that the silent Trump vote hasn’t shown up yet in the early voting. It’s suggested that there's two to three percent of the vote that’s yet to be polled accurately if at all, and could possibly push Trump over the top. Again, we’re still talking early voting numbers here, which have a shoddy history of correctly predicting the state’s final result. Maybe they’re waiting until Election Day, where Trump has a significant lead with voters who plan to vote on November 8 by a 50/39 margin.
Nevertheless, it still doesn’t negate the fact that Trump needs to win the Sunshine State. Should he lose, he would need to flip Colorado and Michigan to nab at least 270 to win. If he flips just Colorado and say, Wisconsin—it leads to a 269-269 tie (that’s if he’s able to clinch Maine’s second congressional district).
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