A spate of new polling again demonstrates the profound vulnerability of President Joe Biden as 2024 approaches, with the incumbent seeking a second term. Fresh data from the Associated Press finds Biden deep underwater on overall job approval, and in even worse shape on the economy. Consumer sentiment recently fell again, as last month's inflation numbers came in hotter than expected for the second consecutive month, with core inflation remaining even higher. Prices are up nearly 18 percent since Biden took office. The AP survey also spells bad news for Biden on the ethics front, too, as a supermajority of respondents say his actions vis-a-vis is his son's overseas business dealings were either illegal or unethical.
A look at some of the numbers:
Fully 68% believe President Biden has acted unethically or illegally regarding his son Hunter's overseas business dealings, with just 30% agreeing with WH 'nothing wrong' spin. A substantial plurality trusts neither party on handling corruption, which sounds about right to me: pic.twitter.com/3qPTsTjbEG
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 16, 2023
The White House and its defenders insist that the Bidens have done nothing wrong, with that exact phrase being inappropriately employed by the president himself to describe the conduct of his son, who now faces multiple felony charges. The extreme shadiness of the high-dollar Biden influence peddling business model -- in which Joe Biden is "the brand" being sold, per a top Biden associate -- reeks to high heaven, and the American people aren't buying the spin. This poll result isn't about Hunter's behavior, just to be clear; it's about Joe's. Given everything we've already discovered about the multimillion-dollar racket -- including vast, inexplicable overseas payments flowing to numerous Biden family members -- I've made the case that not only did the elder Biden lie about his son's overseas entanglements (and his own knowledge thereof), they have been functionally in business together, despite White House protestations to the contrary. A well-run impeachment inquiry could unearth additional evidence on this matter. The AP survey shows the public split on the inquiry, but about one-quarter of the electorate undecided on it. There are a lot of minds to be made up.
These issues for Biden, and the prevailing sentiment that neither party can be trusted on corruption, could eat away at any character or ethics advantage Biden may be banking on ahead of a possible general election rematch with Donald Trump. Speaking of that rematch, Biden holds a statistically-insignificant lead over Trump, according to the latest Fox News poll. Both Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis perform better against Biden head-to-head, but Trump is virtually tied (and is still tied or slightly ahead when possible third party options are thrown into the mix):
🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: Fox News (A-)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 11, 2023
PRES:
(D) Biden 49% (+1)
(R) Trump 48%
~~
(R) Haley 49% (+4)
(D) Biden 45%
~~
(R) DeSantis 49% (+2)
(D) Biden 47%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 59% (+46)
DeSantis 13%
Haley 10%
Ramaswamy 7%
——
1,007 RV | October 6-9 | MoE: ±3%https://t.co/tAhKd4TARv pic.twitter.com/DcPXLBIUx0
As you can see, Trump retains an enormous lead in the GOP primary field. In the still-hypothetical Biden vs Trump 2024 match-up, state level polling is going to be interesting. A slate of new Emerson surveys show Trump barely leading in Wisconsin, up in Pennsylvania, ahead comfortably in places like Ohio, Iowa and Missouri, and roughly matching or over-performing his 2020 marks in a number of other places:
Recommended
More Emerson College polls:
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 16, 2023
Michigan: Biden +1 (2020 results Biden +2.8)
Minnesota: Biden +2 (Biden +7.1)
Colorado: Biden +4 (Biden +13.5)https://t.co/EOOBiMbe1ehttps://t.co/qIkCf64mgNhttps://t.co/nejZs7ohNE
Other polls show the race very competitive in blue-tinted Michigan and Nevada. There's also this new, large batch of early swing state polling:
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @RedfieldWilton
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 15, 2023
Arizona
(R) Trump 44% (+5)
(D) Biden 39%
~~
Georgia
(R) Trump 43% (+3)
(D) Biden 40%
~~
Michigan
(R) Trump 41% (=)
(D) Biden 41%
~~
North Carolina
(R) Trump 43% (+5)
(D) Biden 38%
~~
Pennsylvania
(D) Biden 43% (+1)
(R) Trump 42%
~~
Florida
(R)… pic.twitter.com/CbJAsDWjhe
In this series, Trump is ahead in four of the six battleground states polled (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina), tied in another (Michigan), and down by a single point in Pennsylvania. Finally, it's possible that Biden will get a boost as Americans rally around the flag, in the wake of the devastating attack on our Israeli ally, in which terrorists murdered at least 30 American citizens. Biden's words have been strong in defending and supporting Israel, which is appropriate -- even if a number of his failed foreign policies emboldened, strengthened and enriched Hamas and their Iranian patrons. But while a new NPR Marist poll does show heavy support for Israel among the American people, a majority still disapproves of Biden's handling of the situation. His brand is toxic. On that score, I'll leave you with this:
New ABC News survey shows President Biden underwater, often deep underwater, on every single issue polled: https://t.co/e87SS1xaWP pic.twitter.com/s3ARdbLhAw
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 16, 2023
