If Democrats hoped to wake up on Sunday morning to some better news than they've been bombarded with in recent days, they were out of luck. A barrage of new national surveys show Republicans leading on the generic Congressional ballot, and cleaning up on the issues voters are prioritizing ahead of the November elections. While NBC's latest numbers only give the GOP a one-point lead overall, the enthusiasm metric and other measures of broad discontent may spell serious trouble for the ruling Democratic majorities:
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Headlines from new national NBC News poll.
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 23, 2022
1. Election interest is at an all-time for a midterm, with 70% of reg. voters expressing high interest (was 65% in Oct 2018)
But Republicans have regained the enthusiasm edge -- with 78% of GOPers having high interest vs. 69% of Dems
NBC POLL: "We've got some all-time midterm highs that should serve as red flags for the Democrats."
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 23, 2022
❌ 71% say we're on the wrong track.
❌ 57% disapprove of Biden on the economy.
❌ 50% say the economy will get worse. pic.twitter.com/flnFXa9UfQ
A separate NBC survey of more than 100,000 respondents focused specifically on battleground states:
𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: GOP holds 𝟲 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Democrats on in Battleground States
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 21, 2022
Republicans 53% (+6)
Democrats 47%
⦿ OH: R+12, FL: R+10, AZ: R+6
⦿ GA: R+6, NC: R+6, WI: R+4, NV: R+4
Survey Monkey | 10/15-18 | 108,206 LVhttps://t.co/Z01T8QIXei pic.twitter.com/HyOYvLyfjV
ABC News' latest data set, meanwhile, shows Republicans holding substantial leads on the issues driving the campaign:
ABC/IPSOS: Which party do you trust to handle...
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 23, 2022
Inflation
GOP — 36% (R+15)
Dem — 21%
Gas Prices
GOP — 36% (R+14)
Dem — 22%
The Economy
GOP — 36% (R+12)
Dem — 24%
Crime
GOP — 35% (R+13)
Dem — 22%
686 A | 10/21-22 | D28/R24/I41 (D+4)https://t.co/i6XQ8OcwIQ
The Washington Post reports that Democrats are privately freaking out about what they're seeing, with warning signs 'flashing' across the map:
'Democrats fear the midterm map is slipping away.' From WP. https://t.co/B9wycsayu2 pic.twitter.com/DpW0Cs3XxQ
— Byron York (@ByronYork) October 23, 2022
Amazingly, the White House chief of staff appears to be doubling down on a message that Politico recently reported has been performing worst for Democrats:
It’s an article of faith among Democrats that their party is deeply hampered by its inability or unwillingness to tout its own accomplishments. But what if that conventional wisdom wasn’t just wrong but terribly, harmfully so? That’s the warning being issued by one of the party’s most seasoned pollsters, STAN GREENBERG. In memos, private communications and interviews, Greenberg has been imploring the party to — let’s put this bluntly — shut the hell up about all the work it’s done. It’s not that voters don’t care. He says voters actively turn against Democrats when they hear it. “It’s our worst performing message,” Greenberg told West Wing Playbook. “I’ve tested it. I did Biden’s exact words, his exact speech. And that’s the test where we lost all of our leads… It said to the voters that this election is about my accomplishments as a leader and not about the challenges you’re experiencing.”
Yet Ron Klain is stuck on the counter-productive 'you're welcome, America' talking points:
Reply by progressive economist and RT by the WH Chief of Staff. Voters are constantly ranking economy and inflation as their number one concern. I did not say the economy was a disaster just that voters are concerned about it as polls *constantly* show. Inflation is often #1. pic.twitter.com/UxzgVxmrHU
— andrew kaczynski (@KFILE) October 23, 2022
It's pretty amazing to see Democrats suddenly trying to pivot to talking about issues that voters actually care about. Kathy Hochul has watched her polling lead evaporating, and at long last has decided to say something about crime. The timing is so transparently desperate and political. Similarly, here's Nancy Pelosi realizing that Democrats need to address voters' worries about inflation:
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi advised Democratic candidates to focus on “kitchen table” issues and reducing inflation ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm elections https://t.co/OPAt9bpdTm
— Bloomberg (@business) October 22, 2022
You think? Perhaps endless abortion talk wasn't the genius plan Democrats thought it was. The problem with the pivot she's advising is that she and her entire party caused the inflation problem with their insane spending. One of her top deputies admitted it on national television last week:
“All of us knew this would be the case.” https://t.co/t2jVzxFROw
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 20, 2022
"All of us knew," he said, helpfully. Indeed, every single Democrat in Congress voted for that nearly $2 trillion inflation bomb. I'll leave you with this:
"Our CBS estimates have the Republicans taking the House...how do you shift the momentum?"
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 23, 2022
NANCY PELOSI: "Well let's just say, first and foremost, good morning. It's Sunday morning." pic.twitter.com/QDCXtvfRcB
