In Wednesday's deep dive into the polls, we spilled a fair amount of virtual ink analyzing the ultimate composition of the 2012 electorate. A major component of this calculus is party unity and enthusiasm. Since there's no shortage of Republican negativity at the moment, I figured I'd share a video I stumbled upon of a Romney event in suburban Denver from earlier this week. The Denver Post reported that an estimated 7,000 supporters welcomed the GOP nominee for an outdoor evening rally at a local high school:
That's a large group of excited, motivated people in a major swing state where the polls are very tight. For a sense of the sprawling crowd, skip to the 3:50 mark and just watch the camera pan. This proves absolutely nothing on a macro, non-anecdotal scale -- other than the fact that there are a lot of conservatives, ahem, fired up and ready to go in November. There are also quite a few 2008 Obama voters who won't be pulling the lever for him this round. This ad is part of a $10 million campaign scheduled to run in four swing states:
These women aren't alone. Not by a long shot:
With all my previous caveats in place, this is why it's hard to attach very much credibility to some of the recent polling. Is the excitement and hype surrounding Barack Obama even close to the fever pitch it reached four years ago? Are there large swaths of regretful McCain voters who are just bursting at the seams to correct their error and vote for Obama this time? I can certainly be persuaded that Obama has enough of a lead to win again if the election were held tomorrow, but it simply doesn't compute that he's poised to improve upon his turnout and victory margin from four years ago. Keep calm and carry on.
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