Regular Americans have caught on that President Obama doesn't like them much.
Don't get me wrong. President Obama has committed partisans and interest groups (like the unions) that will fight hard to get him re-elected. But he has failed to engender the kind of personal liking and loyalty that made such a difference to Bill Clinton when he was embattled . . . again, kind of like Jimmy Carter did.
Liking and loyalty is the mother's milk of a successful politician. Barack Obama rose so quickly that no one really had a chance to figure out if they liked him or not. That has changed, and although it doesn't doom his chances of re-election, it does nothing to help them.