Holy Cow: Is John Dingell Losing in MI-15?

Guy Benson | October 08, 2010 11:57 AM

The Detroit Free Press is reporting a new independent poll showing longtime Congressional incumbent John Dingell (D-MI) trailing in his re-election bid:

A new independent poll has the dean of the U.S. House, Rep. John Dingell, trailing his Republican opponent, Rob Steele, by 4 percentage points.

The automated phone survey of 300 people in the 15th Congressional District showed Steele getting 43.8% of the vote. Dingell, a Dearborn Democrat and the longest-serving member of Congress, got 39.5%. About 11% were undecided. The gap is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. The poll was conducted Monday.

A few caveats are in order. First, the poll sample is relatively low at 300 respondents. Second, the write-up describes those sampled simple as "people." Were these adults? Registered voters? Likely voters? That would be useful information. Third, the margin of error is fairly high--5.6 percent. Fourth--and totally unscientifically--my gut has trouble believing these results. John Dingell is losing? Really?

Still, this is an oh-my-goodness moment. Dingell was elected in 1954 and is currently the longest-serving member of Congress. He is an institution who occupies what is the veritable definition of a safe Democratic seat: A suburban Detroit district in a blue state that encompasses parts of Ann Arbor (!) and Dearborn (!!). In 2008, Dingell won re-election with 71 percent of the vote. If John Dingell is vulnerable in 2010 (and the survey shows he's languishing below 40 percent), the coming Red ~~Wave~~ Tsunami could be much, much larger than almost anyone is predicting.

Dingell's Republican opponent is Dr. Rob Steele, a cardiologist who's strongly opposed to Obamacare. Steele may benefit from the massive coattails of GOP Gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder. But again, I ask: Really?