Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
Week of December 29 | |||
December 29 | |||
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 |
December 30 | |||
Twenty City M/M | 0.1% | 0.0 | |
Twenty City M/M - SA | -0.8 | 0.3 | |
Twenty City Y/Y | 3.9 | 4.9 | |
Consumer Confidence | 93.5 | 88.7 | 93.0 |
December 31 | |||
Initial Unemployment Claims | 285K | 280 | 286 |
Chicago PMI | 60.8 | 60.8 | 60.8 |
Pending Home Sale Index - November | 103.8 | 104.1 | 104.6 |
January 1 | |||
January 2 | |||
PMI Manufacturing Index - December | 54.0 | 54.8 | |
ISM (Mfg) - December | 57.3 | 58.7 | 57.5 |
ISM Prices | 43.8 | 44.5 | 43.0 |
Construction Spending - November | 0.0% | 1.1 | 0.5 |
Week of January 5 | |||
January 5 | |||
Auto Sales* - December | 17.11M | 17.20 | 16.9 |
Car Sales | 8.08 | 8.18 | |
Truck Sales | 9.03 | 9.03 | |
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | |||
January 6 | |||
PMI Services Index | 53.0 | 53.6 | |
ISM Services - December | 58.0 | 59.3 | 58.2 |
ISM Prices | 54.5 | 54.5 | |
ISM Business Activity | 64.4 | 64.0 | |
Factory Orders - November | -0.2% | -0.7 | 0.3 |
Durable Goods Orders | -0.7 | -0.7 | |
January 7 | |||
ADP Employment - December | 205K | 208 | 226 |
International Trade - November | -$41.0B | 43.4 | -41.8 |
FMOC | |||
January 8 | |||
Consumer Credit - November | $15.0B | 13.2 | 15.0 |
January 9 | |||
Nonfarm Payrolls - December | 215K | 321 | 240 |
Private | 205 | 314 | 235 |
Manufacturing | 7 | 28 | 15 |
Unemployment | 5.8% | 5.8 | 5.7 |
Average Workweek | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Average Hourly Earnings | 34.5HR | 34.6 | 34.6 |
Wholesale Inventories - November | 0.2% | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. | |||
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