Economic Forecasts for the Weeks of August 11 and 18

Peter Morici
|
Posted: Aug 10, 2014 12:01 AM

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of August 11

August 12

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July

95.5

95.0

95.8

JOLTS - June

4.600

4.635

4.588

Treasury Budget - July

-$100.0B

70.5

-96.0

August 13

Retail Sales - July

0.3%

0.2

0.2

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

0.4

0.4

Business Inventories - June

0.4%

0.5

0.4

August 15

Initial Unemployment Claims

298K

289

295

Export Prices -July

-0.2%

-0.4

-0.1

Import Prices

-0.4

0.1

-0.2

August 15

Producer Price Index - July

0.1%

0.4

0.1

PPI Core

0.1

0.2

0.2

New York Fed Manufacturing Index

20.0

25.6

20.0

Industrial Production - July

0.4%

0.2

0.3

Capacity Utilization

79.4

79.1

79.2

Manufacturing

0.4

0.1

0.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p)

82.2

81.8

82.3

Week of August 18

August 18

NAHB Index

53

53

53

August 19

Consumer Price Index - July

0.1%

0.3

0.1

CPI Core

0.2

0.1

0.2

Energy

Housing Starts - July

0.965M

0.893

.970

Building Permits

0.990

0.963

0.998

August 21

Initial Unemployment Claims

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

55.3

56.3

55.6

Philadelphia Fed Survey

21.9

23.9

23.5

Existing Home Sales - July

4.986M

5.040

5.02

Leading Economic Indicators

0.5%

0.3

0.4

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.