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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of August 11 |
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August 12 |
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July |
95.5 |
95.0 |
95.8 |
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JOLTS - June |
4.600 |
4.635 |
4.588 |
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Treasury Budget - July |
-$100.0B |
70.5 |
-96.0 |
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August 13 |
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Retail Sales - July |
0.3% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
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Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
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Business Inventories - June |
0.4% |
0.5 |
0.4 |
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August 15 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
298K |
289 |
295 |
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Export Prices -July |
-0.2% |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
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Import Prices |
-0.4 |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
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August 15 |
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Producer Price Index - July |
0.1% |
0.4 |
0.1 |
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PPI Core |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
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New York Fed Manufacturing Index |
20.0 |
25.6 |
20.0 |
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Industrial Production - July |
0.4% |
0.2 |
0.3 |
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Capacity Utilization |
79.4 |
79.1 |
79.2 |
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Manufacturing |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p) |
82.2 |
81.8 |
82.3 |
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Week of August 18 |
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August 18 |
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NAHB Index |
53 |
53 |
53 |
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August 19 |
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Consumer Price Index - July |
0.1% |
0.3 |
0.1 |
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CPI Core |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
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Energy |
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Housing Starts - July |
0.965M |
0.893 |
.970 |
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Building Permits |
0.990 |
0.963 |
0.998 |
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August 21 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
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PMI Manufacturing Flash Index |
55.3 |
56.3 |
55.6 |
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Philadelphia Fed Survey |
21.9 |
23.9 |
23.5 |
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Existing Home Sales - July |
4.986M |
5.040 |
5.02 |
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Leading Economic Indicators |
0.5% |
0.3 |
0.4 |
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Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. |