Is war with Iran inevitable, even imminent? Or is peace at hand?
From the public diplomacy of the administration, either conclusion may be reached. Consider.
"West Offers Iran 'Refreshed' Deal," ran the headline in the May 3 Washington Times. The story described an offer to Iran, agreed to by all five members of the Security Council -- the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China -- of a sweetened grand bargain, if Tehran will suspend its enrichment of uranium.
Blessing the offering in London was Condi Rice.
Details will not be made public, but the offer is said to include Western aid to Iran for a civilian nuclear program, a light water reactor and a five-year stock of enriched uranium held for Iran by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
America's contribution would be support for Iran's admission to the World Trade Organization, a conference to discuss regional security in the Gulf, a U.S. offer to sell Iran spare parts for its U.S.-built civilian aircraft and a beginning of the lifting of three decades of U.S. sanctions.
News of this offer, plus the relaxed mood in Washington, which is utterly unlike the tense atmosphere prior to March 2003, suggests that war with Iran is far from the mind of this city.
But to take the warnings and threats of the civilian and military leaders of this administration at face value would lead one to conclude the opposite -- that war with Iran is indeed inevitable, and probably soon. Consider.
Last month, Gen. David Petraeus was asked by Joe Lieberman, "Is it fair to say that the Iranian-backed special groups in Iraq are responsible for the murder of hundreds of American soldiers and thousands of Iraqi soldiers and civilians?"
"It certainly is. ... That is correct," answered the general.
The next day, Petraeus testified, "Unchecked, the 'special groups' pose the greatest long-term threat to the viability of a democratic Iraq."
Petraeus has since been promoted to command of all U.S. forces in the region.
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, known as an opponent of war on Iran, followed Petraeus, accusing Tehran of being "hell-bent on acquiring nuclear weapons." Last week, Gates was out front again. "What the Iranians are doing is killing American servicemen and -women inside Iraq."
Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, is now also pounding the war drum. Iran's "irresponsible influence," its support of terror and its pursuit of atomic weapons, he said last week, is creating a "perfect nightmare" for the region. The Pentagon, said the chairman, is planning for "potential military ... action" because of Iran's "increasingly lethal and malign influence."