Matt Towery

Several months back, I suggested that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist was the perfect moderate politician to help bring independent voters back to the Republican Party. Crist had just announced his plans to skip a second term as governor and instead seek the U.S. Senate seat held by the retiring Mel Martinez.

In that race next year, Crist is being challenged in the GOP primary by a young Cuban-American, the highly conservative former speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, Marco Rubio.

When that column was written, Barack Obama's approval rating was near 70 percent and moderation seemed to be the only hope for the GOP. Based on my own political experience, I still believe that a moderate and attractive Crist is the best answer for the Republicans for electability in Florida. But now I also believe Crist could be striding into one of the most expert political traps of recent years.

Let's set the scene. Charlie Crist is a friendly, attractive and exceedingly likeable man. He's also the man who was barely sworn in before he started dismantling parts of former Gov. Jeb Bush's policy legacy. Many a Florida conservative has lost faith in Crist because of a series of rather poorly advised political moves.

First, there was Crist's embrace of the Arnold Schwarzenegger-inspired salute to Obama's "climate control" initiative. That in combination with the governor's public appearance with Obama in support of the president's stimulus bill left many a hardcore Republican in the Sunshine State with a queasy feeling.

Make no mistake about it: Neither Jeb Bush nor many of the recently displaced conservatives in the GOP have any use for Charlie Crist. To them, he is a vapid, disingenuous, say-anything-to-advance-his-career sort of Republican. And there's at least some evidence that, yes, the charming Crist has a way of telling people what they want to hear, only to move on and forget that person, and maybe even what he said to them in the first place.

Now comes the curve ball. Mel Martinez had already made it clear that he would not seek re-election to the Senate in 2010. That cleared the way for Crist and his high approval ratings to coast right on into the Senate. But last week, Martinez threw a breaking pitch when he came out and said that he is going to leave the Senate early, this year. That puts Crist in a pickle: He must name a successor to Martinez -- to the office that Crist himself seeks.

Matt Towery

Matt Towery is a pollster, attorney, businessman and former elected official. He served as campaign strategist for Congressional, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns. His latest book is Newsvesting: Use News and Opinion to Grow Your Personal Wealth. Follow him on Twitter @MattTowery