Jonah Goldberg

It was big news around the world: China has "overtaken" Japan as the world's second-richest economy.

Except, well, it's not really news, it's not really big, and it's not entirely true.

Let's take the last part first. Yes, technically, China's gross domestic product is now slightly ahead of Japan's.

But GDP is a gross statistic. It doesn't tell you nearly as much as you might think. In a very real way, China is still poorer than Japan. It's also poorer than Tunisia, Ecuador, Gabon, Kazakhstan and Namibia.

Last quarter Japan produced about $1.28 trillion of economic output, or about $10,085 for each of the 127 million Japanese people. China's output was $1.337 trillion for the quarter. But China has 1.3 billion people, so that's about $1,000 for each Chinese person.

Yes, 1.3 billion poor Chinese people are collectively more productive than 127 million rich Japanese people, but I can guarantee that most sane people would rather be poor by Japanese standards than middle class by Chinese standards.

When I graduated from high school in 1987, historian Paul Kennedy published "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers." The original cover depicted the Japanese about to seize center stage, while Uncle Sam was stepping down (and Winston Churchill was already walking off to historical oblivion). That cover looks pretty stupid now.

At the time, the book was a sensation, taken as gospel by a whole class of liberal economists, journalists and intellectuals. Indeed, Kennedy was simply synthesizing the consensus at the time. Which is why he could confidently predict the inevitably of Japanese world dominance, but completely miss the demise of the Soviet Union, which was right around the corner.

Regardless, the idea that Japan was going to supplant America as the dominant world power was one of those things "everybody knows."

James Fallows of the Atlantic insisted that America had to emulate Japan's policies while pursuing a policy of "containing" Japan, lest we be run over by it. Chalmers Johnson insisted that the Cold War was over and "Japan won." He also argued that the failure of free-market economics was so complete that, "If America were a well-run country, neoclassical economists would be hanging from the Capitol dome."

Today we hear similar stuff about China. Indeed, when it comes to China, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman often seems like one of the hypnotized acolytes of the snake god Thulsa Doom from the movie "Conan the Barbarian."


Jonah Goldberg

Jonah Goldberg is editor-at-large of National Review Online,and the author of the book The Tyranny of Clichés. You can reach him via Twitter @JonahNRO.
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