As goes the New York-23 special congressional election, so goes the
direction of the national GOP? Not so fast.
“The national media is making it sound as though there's a civil war
between the RINOs and the conservatives, and they're making it seem as
though the Republican Party is just completely fractured, and I don’t
think that's true,” said Jack P. McGuire, Assistant Professor at
SUNY-Potsdam.
Republicans in upstate New York have been overlooked, said McGuire,
because of the state party system. New York State has political
parties that are stronger than almost anywhere else in the country;
instead of holding primaries, the establishment politicos can simply
install whoever they like – particularly in a special election.
“They did have some town hall meetings where they would say, ‘Well,
who should we have as our nominee?’” said McGuire. “But we know that
those things are kind of rigged, generally.”
As a result, Republicans in the 23rd district ended up with Dede
Scozzafava, someone with high name recognition but very few
conservative credentials.
Republicans in McGuire’s region are “libertarian, secular, Milton
Friendman, Ronald Reagan, get-the-government-off-my-back type of
Republicans…We would've much preferred a real conservative.”
This split also resulted in the severe fracturing within the larger
GOP, with the National Republican Campaign Committee shoveling
millions of dollars – and now, campaign volunteers – towards a
candidate that has been polling more and more poorly against her
Conservative Party counterpart.
Establishment political parties aren’t the only reason for the massive
dissonance occurring within the NY-23 race.
“There are a number of trends,” said Harvey Schantz, professor of
political science
at the State University of New York, Plattsburg. “There is an
underlying pro-Democratic trend, then you have the retirement of the
incumbent, and then you have the division of the Republican Party
vote.”
Schantz says that the general Northeastern gravitation towards
liberalism is the reason upstate New York Republicans are a party
divided.