Jeff  Carter

Clarence Page sees Newt Gingrich, and thinks the Tea Party is dead. I see Newt’s rise, and think the Tea Party is very much alive. How can two different people have such divergent views?

Mr. Page is a consummate insider. He is an in the Beltway guy. He is also very liberal. My guess is that when it comes to serious talk, Page rarely engages with conservatives from outside the Beltway. First, he knows that he isn’t going to persuade them any more than they will persuade him. Second, when he gets outside the Beltway it’s probably rare that he seeks out a true conservative, preferring to hang out in his regular haunts. I guarantee that when he is in Chicago, it’s pretty tough to find a true conservative in this state.

Inside the Beltway people have to watch that they don’t get a case of groupthink. This goes for both parties. There is a tendency to hear only what you want to hear. It makes you tone deaf in the end. That’s why inside the Beltway people don’t understand the Tea Party. They wish it would just go away. It won’t, and it’s stronger than ever.

Eventually there will be some Occupy Wall Street people that will see the light and start to caucus with Tea Party people. The OWS disenchantment on bank bailouts has kinship in the Tea Party movement. Crony capitalism and big government are no-no’s for the Tea Party.

The nature of the Republican nomination process we see today says a lot more about the differences between parties and the Tea Party influence. Democrats are centrally controlled. It makes the party easy to move in one direction or another. Talking points between journalists and elected officials mimic one another. The party is top down.

Additionally, many of the adherents of the Democratic party are used to following orders. Their largest bloc of support is unions. Unions are top down organizations. They are lead by a well paid elite staff with hierarchies.

Republicans used to try and pattern themselves after the organization of Democrats. But the Tea Party has thrown a wrench into that. The proof, no Republican candidate can get a foothold. The nomination is very much in flux.

Everyone knows the default candidate is Romney. Romney can beat Obama. Tea Partiers know that Romney is the inside the Beltway choice to run. Page points to the rise of Gingrich as the downfall of the Tea Party. However, that’s not the case.

Jeff Carter

Jeffrey Carter is an independent speculator. He has been trading since 1988. His blog site, Points and Figures was named by Minyanville as one of The 20 Most Influential Blogs in Financial Media.