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Thursday, March 27, 2008
William Rusher :: Townhall.com Columnist
An Important Election in Taiwan
by William Rusher
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Following its lopsided victory in the legislative elections of Jan. 12, Taiwan's Nationalist Party (or Kuomintang) has nailed down control of that vital island by electing its candidate as president of the Republic of China for a four-year term.

This has been hailed in some American quarters as a victory for those who favor an accommodation between Taiwan and Beijing, but don't be deceived. The Kuomintang was Sun Yat-sen's party, which lost control of the mainland to the communists in 1949 but has maintained itself on the staunchly independent island of Taiwan ever since. Eight years ago, it lost control of the government there to the Democratic Progressive party, which has recently tried to revive its waning popularity by taking steps in the direction of total independence from mainland China. The Nationalists, though resisting such steps, do not favor reunification with the mainland until communism is gone and it is at last a free society. They favor the current status quo, under which Taiwan remains totally free while increasing its highly profitable economic relations with China.

The newly elected president of the Republic of China on Taiwan is Ma Ying-jeou, whom I met and got to know slightly when we were both at Harvard Law School in the early 1970s -- he to acquire his Doctorate in the Science of Jurisprudence and I in pursuit of the far lowlier degree of Bachelor of Laws. Ma speaks English fluently (thank goodness!) and is a solid friend of the United States. The idea that he feels any sympathy for communism is simply laughable.

Thus, at a victory news conference, Ma declared that he would immediately start negotiations for direct charter airline flights to and from the mainland. But he warned that any broader peace accord with Beijing would require China to remove from southern China more than 1,000 missiles there that are aimed at Taiwan. The likelihood of Beijing consenting to this suggests just how remote is the possibility of a true reconciliation.

Nonetheless, Ma's victory was undoubtedly welcomed in Beijing as at least a step away from the DPP's pugnacious moves toward total independence. And paradoxically, for the very same reason, Washington has hailed the election result. The United States is firmly committed to the defense of Taiwan's independence from the communist mainland but has had no desire to underwrite the DPP's recent grandiose gestures in that direction.

Ma's victory, by the way, was strikingly big: 58 percent to the DPP's 42 percent, among Taiwan's 17 million eligible voters, an imposing 75 percent of whom cast ballots. And it was underscored by the defeat of two referendums, supported by the DPP, calling for Taiwan to apply for membership in the United Nations -- referendums the Nationalists had urged voters to ignore and which less than 36 percent supported.

President Bush issued a statement congratulating Ma on his election and added, "I believe the election provides a fresh opportunity for both sides to reach out and engage one another in peacefully resolving their differences."

That may be putting it a little strongly. Beijing regards Taiwan as simply a province of China in rebellion against the legitimate government. Taiwan's government regards itself as the authentic and indeed traditional government of a part of China -- the island of Taiwan -- that has never been a part of the People's Republic, and which will contemplate unification only when the mainland is noncommunist and free.

So the argument is obviously going to go on for some time. But at least the voters of Taiwan have signaled their preference for awaiting unification with a democratic mainland rather than cutting loose from China altogether. And that is assuredly a step in the right direction.

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About The Author

William Rusher is a Distinguished Fellow of the Claremont Institute for the Study of Statesmanship and Political Philosophy and author of How to Win Arguments .

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A few more things
Rusher said this "Ma speaks English fluently (thank goodness!) and is a solid friend of the United States."

First, who cares if Ma speaks English fluently. The official language of the ROC is Mandarin with Taiyu basically be a second unofficial official language. Being from HK I'd hope he could speak it fluently. Is this a dig against Chen Shui-bian or Hsieh Ch'ang T'ing? I've never had a difficult time understanding President Chen's English. And from Hsieh's visit to the US in 1995, I am pretty sure he has a good command of English as well. Can Bush, Obama or Clinton speak Mandarin or Taiyu?

Second, who cares if Ma is a good friend of the US? The question is is Ma a good friend of Taiwan? And another important question is the US a good friend of Taiwan...looking over US actions toward Taiwan since 1979 I think the answer to that question is somewhat in question.

Nan Bu
Kepha:

I would say that the reason that the KMT was able to do better in Kaohsiung, Tainan, Pingtung, Chiayi, etc is that the DPP was seen as a broken and corrupt party. Ma's support here wasn't because they all of a sudden became Blue, but because they had come to loath what the DPP had become. This was an anti-Minjindang vote, not a pro-Goumindang vote.

I would add that I think Hsieh Ch'ang T'ing did much better than I expected. In fact the DPP did better this year in the percentage of support than it did in 1996 or 2000. It won only 21% of the vote in 1996 and 39.3% in 2000 (but more than Soong's 36.8% or Lien's 23.1). Ma was up by 40 points at one point and won only 58.45% to 41.55%. While the DPP did lose Kaohisung City, Tainan City and Chaiyi City, it won Pingtung County, Kaohsiung County, Tainan County, Chiayi County and Yunlin County, so support for the DPP is still quite strong in the south. In 2004, the DPP won Yilan County, Changhua County and Taichung County--was the DPP eating into KMT support in the north then? The DPP won Yilan and Changhua counties in 2000 as well and the KMT didn't win a single county or city. In 1996, the DPP didn't win a single county--the KMT won every thing but Nantou which was won by the independent ticket of Lin Yung-Kang-and Hau Pei-Tsun.

Now yes the army officers are mainly blue. I had Hsiao Bhim-Kim tell me that in 2000 she and other high level DPP members went around to various generals telling them everything would be okay to try to stop any talks of a coup.

I think such talk is basically nonsense. I remember back in the mid-1990s, I was out with a bunch oif mid-level officers--one said the DPP are a bunch of aholes. Another stepped in saying, no, they are important. The seeds of a non-political army were present even then.

But I do agree with you that Taiwan is now a full and deep democracy.





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