On the GOP side, state attorney general Tom Corbett tops the list to succeed Rendell, followed by former U.S. attorney Pat Meehan and Rep. Jim Gerlach. No sign so far of a return by former Steeler and 2006 Republican gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann.
The top Democrats are Allegheny County executive Dan Onorato, state auditor general Jack Wagner and Kathleen McGinty, former head of the state environmental protection department.
Pennsylvania’s 2010 races will come at a key time for President Obama; they will mark his first midterm election, the first real electoral test of his political tentacles.
If Obama is successful, then he could solidify Pennsylvania’s blueness. If he is on shaky ground, then all shades of red and purple could predominate.
“I think Pennsylvania remains a competitive state that leans blue but which cannot be taken for granted,” says former University of Pittsburgh political scientist Bert Rockman.
In the run-up to the November election, everyone around the country learned that Pittsburgh and Philadelphia served as Democratic bookends to the state's conservative Republican center and northern tier. Yet if you look closely at 2008's results, the more accurate portrayal now is of Democratic Philadelphia and her collar counties in the east with virtually everything else to the west being the Republican heartland.
In 2008, Clinton and McCain both staked everything on Pennsylvania. Obama stumbled badly there in the spring but by the fall won it handily -- which might make political-thinkers believe the state is now firmly blue.
Maranto disagrees: “GOP prospects are pretty good. Pennsylvania voters are generally leery of giving all the keys to the kingdom to either party; with Rendell having the governorship for eight years and the Democrats in control in Washington, it makes it easy for a Republican to run as someone assuring the separation of powers, or else run as the outsider.
“Either way,” he says, “it should make the Republicans highly competitive in Pennsylvania -- and lots of other states.”
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