In 2000, George Bush received 35% of the Hispanic vote. In 2004, although the exit polls showed that Bush got 44% of the Hispanic vote, they were horribly flawed. Realistically, Bush probably pulled in 38%-39% of the Hispanic vote that year. In 2006, the GOP pulled 30% of the Hispanic vote and McCain captured about 31% of the Hispanic vote in 2008.

First off, the fact that McCain only pulled 31% of the Hispanic vote should prove once and for all that the amnesty issue doesn't move Hispanic votes over to the GOP. If it did, certainly McCain, who has been the biggest advocate of amnesty in the entire Republican Party would have been the candidate to do it.

Additionally, trying to pin the GOP’s drop with Hispanics on illegal immigration makes very little sense given that there are plenty of other groups whose support has dropped a similar amount over the same period of time as the GOP has become less popular.

For example, take the swing in the demographic numbers, from roughly 38% in 2004 to 31% in 2008. Now compare it to the shifts we saw in other demographic groups over that same time period: from 2004 to 2008 our Catholic support dropped 7 points, urban voters dropped 8 points, and non-religious voters dropped 8 points. In other words, the GOP has bled out with a large number of groups as it has become less popular, not just Hispanics. Since that’s the case, as we start to go in the right direction again, we have every reason to think the GOP can reach the same level of support from Hispanics it did in 2000 and 2004, whether we back amnesty or not.

The GOP cannot win without the conservative media. You may like talk radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham, and Sean Hannity or you may not, but the reality is that the GOP absolutely cannot win elections when they're telling everyone who'll listen that the Republican Party is mediocre.

There are two reasons for that.

#1) Those radio hosts are popular in the first place largely because the conservatives who make up the GOP's base agree with them. If the talk show hosts are not happy with something, their listeners probably aren't happy with it either -- and making your core supporters happy is the first lesson of Politics 101.

#2) Because the mainstream media is so heavily biased towards the Democratic Party, most independent voters take what they say about Republicans with a grain of salt. However, independents perceive conservative talk radio hosts and their listeners to be on the "GOP's side." So, if they hear criticism of the Republican Party from those people, they tend to think it must be true.

So, Republicans can afford to have Keith Olbermann and Katie Couric telling people that they stink, but they can't win elections if conservative talk radio hosts, columnists, and bloggers are ripping them up one side and down the other.