The most ominous signal yet for the Obama health-care plan emerged in the poll by Scott Rasmussen released today. While public support for the plan fell to a new low (42 percent support, 53 percent oppose -- down five points in two weeks), the elderly emerged as the strongest opposition group. Those over 65 rejected the plan by 39 percent to 56 percent, while almost half -- 46 percent -- said they were "strongly opposed" to it.

The group that supports the plan most strongly are those likely to be least affected -- voters under the age of 30, 67 percent of whom support the proposals.

The Democratic senators and congressmen can well choose to ignore polls. Polls go up. Polls go down. They may figure that the public will have moved on by the time they run for re-election, particularly those senators who are not up in 2010. With four or six years to go in their terms, they can afford a relaxed view of polling data.

But the Democratic Party as a whole cannot afford to ignore a massive defection in the ranks of the elderly, one of its key building blocks. Ever since the New Deal coalition was cobbled together by FDR, the elderly have been a major component. Worried about Republican designs on their Social Security, they vote overwhelmingly Democratic. But the Obama proposals, which many see correctly as a major cut in Medicare, might be seminal in driving them en masse away from the Democrats. Continued...