The polls now all indicate an Obama win on Nov. 4; some even suggest a landslide. But there's a strong chance the race will tighten back up this month.
Anger over the Wall Street mess has been pushing voters to Barack Obama in droves. And John McCain's effort to get involved in the solution only hurt him.
By suspending his campaign and heading to Washington, McCain made himself a central actor in the unpopular bailout, and thus a target of populist outrage. It also hurt his his effort to show how he far he is from President Bush - there he was, shoulder to shoulder with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Bush and Wall Street.
But October may see the end of Obama's surge: He's peaking too soon.
Once the Democrat is seen as the clear leader and likely winner, the spotlight will inevitably shift to him. And he may not benefit from the increased attention.
Obama didn't do well when he last emerged on top, in later Democratic primaries. The more it appeared that Hillary Clintonwould lose, the more voter concerns over Obama's relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright cost him state after state in the later primaries.
Obama still beat Clinton because he'd already amassed a sufficient delegate lead earlier on. That dynamic doesn't apply in the general election.
The Democrat gained by standing back during the rescue-bill drama. But now voters (with a strong push from the McCain campaign) will be giving him a closer look - and some won't like what they see.
They will examine his tax proposals and spending plans, and question his economic credentials. Facing one of the gravest crises in our nation's history, they'll wonder: Is it wise to trust an ingénue with little experience with the power of the White House?
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