Vladimir Putin's Russia, however, doesn't buy in. His corrupt, crony-led regime longs for Soviet-era military and diplomatic sway -- Cold War nostalgia. In August 2008, the Russo-Georgia War erupted, and Moscow invoked its interpretation of The Kosovo Precedent. If protecting Kosovar Albanians elicits a NATO invasion, Russia can invade to "protect" South Ossetia.
A Russian ruse to camouflage thuggery? Yes, but it played to Russian and Serb perceptions. Russia insisted that Kosovo's unilateral independence was a "redline issue" -- as in, don't cross it. When crossed, Moscow picked up a saber.
No, it isn't quite that simple, but it's part of the wicked tangle. Earlier this month, U.S. News and World Report reported that the Obama administration's new director of national intelligence, Dennis Blair, had identified the Balkans and Kosovo as one of the five key areas of concern (beyond al-Qaida) for U.S. intelligence agencies .
A key quote: "Events in the Balkans will again pose the greatest threat of instability in Europe in 2009," Blair said. "The biggest challenge comes from the "unresolved political status of the Serb minority in Kosovo, particularly in northern Kosovo, and Bosnia-Herzegovina's continuing uneasy interethnic condominium." 
Russia champions the Serb cause. The czars championed Slav ethnic solidarity when it suited them. Contemporary Russia is run by an oligarchy of crooks, but crooks schooled on the use and abuse of bitter ethnic and religious rivalries, border disputes and deep historical grievances. Final status? This Balkan problem goes well beyond the Balkans. |