While the eight candidates who appeared on this week's debate stage in Milwaukee for the first Republican presidential primary debate continue to spin their performance as the strongest and most impactful, the contenders and their campaigns are certainly already looking ahead at the second debate scheduled for September 27 at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. The question now is: Who's going to make the cut?
As announced at the beginning of the August, the Republican National Committee's criteria to appear at the second debate sets an even higher bar for candidates that seeks to narrow the field to only those showing the most momentum.
In order to make the debate stage in California, candidates must reach three percent in two national polls or three percent in one national poll and three percent in two polls from separate early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina) conducted on or after August 1 and no later than 48 hours before the debate.
While there was confusion expressed by some candidates who believed they'd qualified but had not actually fulfilled the RNC's criteria, the party's polling requirements are clear. In order to count toward the polling threshold, the survey must: have a sample of at least 800 registered likely GOP voters through live calls, integrated voice response, online panels, and/or text message; not overly weight responses of any individual cohort beyond the margin of error of the poll; ask the question on presidential preference prior to any question which may allow potential bias; and not be conducted by a polling company affiliated with a candidate or candidate committee.
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Notably, the polling criteria for the September debate is quite a bit higher for candidates who were on the bubble and had a tough time meeting the one percent poll showing required to qualify for the first debate in Milwaukee.
In addition, the donor hurdle is getting higher for the second debate. This time around, candidates will need to have a minimum of 50,000 unique donors who've contributed to a principal presidential campaign committee or exploratory committee with at least 200 unique donors per state in 20 or more states (and/or territories) no later than 48 hours before the second debate. For the first debate, candidates needed 40,000 donors to qualify.
As with the first debate, candidates will be required to have signed pledges to only participate in RNC-sanctioned debates for the rest of the 2024 cycle and to support the eventual GOP nominee for president, a sticking point for some of the candidates who eventually did sign the pledge despite saying otherwise in their public remarks.
According to Fox News, six candidates who participated in the first debate don't have too much to worry about and currently qualify for the second debate: Florida Governor Ron Desantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Ambassador Nikki Haley, and U.S. Senator Scott (R-SC).
While he said he'd be skipping debates, plural, when announcing he would not appear at the first debate, former President Donald Trump also meets the polling and donor criteria if he chose to participate and pledge to support whoever wins the nomination which, according to polls, is still his to lose.
The RNC said that the on-stage order of candidates for the second debate will be, the same as at the first debate, based on polling performance and that future debates may see even higher polling and donor thresholds for candidates to clear in order to participate.
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