Is There a Coup Attempt Underway in Russia?

Things took an interesting and "unprecedented" turn in Russia as Friday evening turned into Saturday morning and the Wagner Group — a paramilitary organization whose mercenaries were, until this point, fighting alongside Putin's troops against Ukraine — made a 180-degree turn, entered Russia, and is reportedly making its way to Moscow with an axe to grind against Putin's military leaders.

According to BBC News, the Wagner Group's leader — Yevgeny Prigozhin — recently took to social media network Telegram to claim "'huge numbers' of his fighters had been killed in a strike by the Russian military on a Wagner camp, though he provided no evidence to support his claims." BBC noted that Prigozhin "has become increasingly vocal in his criticism of Russia's military leaders" in recent months despite being, at least previously, a close confidant to Putin.

After Prigozhin made his claim, Russia turned around and launched an investigation against him for "inciting mutiny" and issued an arrest warrant as the paramilitary leader apparently made good on his promise to launch a "march for justice" against the "evil" in Russia's military — leading Putin's government to begin securing Moscow — according to The Wall Street Journal:

Russian authorities stepped up security in Moscow and issued an arrest warrant for Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner paramilitary group, on charges of mutiny after he called on his troops to oust the country’s military leadership.

Prigozhin, a one-time confidant of President Vladimir Putin, called for retaliation after claiming that the Russian military killed “an enormous amount” of his troops in Friday’s strikes on Wagner camps. The military denied these strikes had occurred, and there was no independent evidence to back up his claim.

As Russian soldiers in armored personnel carriers secured key installations in Moscow, leading Russian military commanders who had worked with Wagner urged the group’s fighters to stop before it was too late. “The last thing we need is to unleash a real civil war inside the country. Come back to your senses,” urged Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, the deputy chief of Russian military intelligence.

While there were no reports of clashes, Prigozhin said that his forces will launch a “march for justice.” Early on Saturday morning, he said that his troops had already left eastern Ukraine and started entering the southern Russian city of Rostov, where he said young conscripts offered no resistance. There was no immediate independent confirmation.

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A senior American intelligence official tells me for both Ukraine and U.S. intelligence, it’s a “watch and see if they destroy themselves sort of situation.” They said it was going to be a long night of watching how this develops. Said Wagner is preparing* to mobilize—it’s… https://t.co/I1eofkDZj8

— Jim LaPorta (@JimLaPorta) June 23, 2023

With Moscow reportedly on "high alert" and Wagner mercenaries supposedly setting their sights on Moscow this is definitely not the sort of situation Putin would seem eager to face more than one year into his war against Ukraine that's already brought heavy losses for his troops and even his generals, not to mention Wagner Group mercenaries.

It's hard to imagine that Wagner personnel could take on and topple Russia's military and Putin's security forces in Moscow, but coups are hard to pre-judge with so many inherent variables. Are there others in Russia, already in Moscow, or within Putin's circle who may join the Wagner Group's proclaimed "march for justice" against the country's military leaders? Or are Wagner fighters on a doomed mission that will leave the group out to dry against Putin's tyrannical regime? Perhaps the whole thing — given Prigozhin's close ties to Putin — is a KGB operation to either show Russia's ability to put down a manufactured rebellion to dissuade others from trying a real coup?

We'll just have to "watch and see."