A recent poll shows that Republican Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in the Michigan Senate race. The Epic MRA survey highlights growing dissatisfaction among Democrats, suggesting that Buttigieg, despite his significant role in the Biden administration, is facing considerable challenges in Michigan. The results indicate a shift in voter sentiment as Republicans seek to take advantage of discontent with the former Biden administration’s policies.
The poll surveyed 600 likely Michigan voters, showing Rogers leading Buttigieg by 47 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent of respondents still undecided. Forty-five percent of respondents identify as Republican, and 40 percent identify as Democrats. Twelve percent of respondents identified as independents, a group that could present challenges for a Democrat like Buttigieg in a general election.
Michigan’s senate race will be closely watched in the 2026 midterms as the state is split between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans are keen to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who won’t seek re-election, to move onto a “new chapter” that includes spending more time with his family.
Despite his national prominence under the Biden administration, Buttigieg struggles to gain support in his home state of Michigan. However, he is facing other Democrats in the primary who have stronger connections to the state. He has faced increasing criticism during his tenure regarding handling supply chain disruptions, airline delays, and the Ohio train derailment, among other issues. Democrats have raised concerns that Buttigieg, who moved to Michigan in 2022 after living in the red state of Indiana, could encounter "carpetbagging" attacks from Republicans during his Senate campaign.
Last month, I reported on Buttigieg’s senate aspirations. The 2026 race is expected to be one of the most expensive Senate races in the country and one of the most contentious for the Democratic Party. President Donald Trump narrowly won the state in 2024, leaving Republicans with a 53-47 majority in the Senate. This means Democrats must win four seats in 2026 to retake control.
