A significant red wave is looking to hit the historically blue state of Pennsylvania as more and more voters shift to identify as Republican.
Less than a month before the 2024 election, Democrats are losing ground in swing states needed to secure the White House win. Following President Joe Biden’s exit from the race, Democrats have relied heavily on enthusiasm to take them to victory at the polls. However, that “enthusiasm” has died down significantly for them.
Considered to be a must-win state for Harris, polls show the odds of her securing enough votes are diminishing. In 2020, Biden won the state by less than 81,000 votes, and since then, the Democratic Party has lost 295,182 registered voters. This means Vice President Kamala Harris has to exceed significantly in that state compared to Biden.
63 of 67 counties in Pennsylvania have shifted Republican since 2020
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“Given how close 2020 was, she can’t have any bad news — neither side can — we know, especially in Pennsylvania, which I think will be the state that decides it,” Paul Sracic, a political scientist at Youngstown State University, said.
Although the Democratic Party has 338,000 more registered voters than the Republican Party, the left has lost nearly 5,000 voters since the primaries in April.
Meanwhile, Bucks and Luzerne County have slowly turned red.
Before the assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump in July, Democrats had the advantage in Bucks County. However, following the horrific attempt on Trump’s life, Republicans slowly took the lead. Meanwhile, in Luzerne County, an almost 2,000-voter lead on July 1 flipped last week to an 83-voter lead for the GOP.
Politico recently pointed out that “Harris’ Pennsylvania problem” lies in her pro-abortion, anti-Catholic stance. Pollster Christopher Borick said Biden had enough in common with voters in the state's rural areas but added, “That’s not going to be the same equation with Kamala Harris.”
A Franklin and Marshall College poll states that Trump leads Harris 50 to 43 percent in northeastern Pennsylvania. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll found that Trump maintains 97 percent of his 2020 voters and 6 percent of Biden's voters. Meanwhile, Harris has secured 92 percent of Biden’s 2020 supporters, with two percent of Trump voters since the last election cycle.
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