As we're just under seven weeks away from the election, there's been a flurry of polls gauging the state of the presidential race between former and potentially future President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Many of them are coming out of key swing states, understandably so given that's where this close and competitive election will most likely come down to. Earlier this week, we took a look at Pennsylvania, which, with 19 electoral votes, carries the highest number of the swing states. The race is particularly tight there, something Harris could have avoided if she had picked Governor Josh Shapiro over Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. The race looks to be particularly close in Wisconsin as well, per recent polls.
An AARP poll highlights how "Harris and Trump Are Neck and Neck Among Wisconsin Voters," and that the presidential race certainly is a "tight" one. The actual polling data also refers to the race as "a very competitive" one.
In a head-to-head matchup, Harris only leads Trump by 49-48 percent among likely voters, while she leads 48-45 percent in the full field. However, Trump leads by 50-47 percent with voters over 50, a key voting bloc that consistently comes to the polls.
The poll, conducted September 11-14, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points for likely voters and plus or minus 3.5 percent among the older voters. That it was conducted starting right after last Tuesday's ABC News debate shows Harris failed to get that bump we were promised and in such a key state, at least according to this poll.
New WISCONSIN poll by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) for AARP
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 18, 2024
2-WAY
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟥 Trump: 48%
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FULL FIELD
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Other: 1%
—
Senate
🟦 Baldwin: 50%
🟥 Hovde: 47%
—
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While the poll may show Harris with the best favorable rating, she's only even. Forty-eight percent have a favorable view of the vice president, while 48 percent have an unfavorable view. While Trump is still underwater with a 46-51 percent favorable rating, the poll notes he's made improvements. "Trump’s image is slightly underwater at 46/51, a modest improvement from his -10 rating in July," the poll mentions.
President Joe Biden fares worse than Trump, though, with a favorable rating of 41-55 percent, though this is an improvement from July.
Trump also does better among voters over 50, the poll notes. "Among voters 50+, Harris and Trump are close to even on their images, while Biden is at net -10," the data mentions.
Even better for the Republican nominee is that the recalled approval of his job performance is at a net favorable (51-48 percent favorable), unlike both Harris as vice president (45-51 percent) and Biden as president (43-55 percent).
It would be wise for the Trump-Vance campaign to keep tying Harris to the Biden-Harris administration, considering that she is the sitting vice president.
A poll released by Quinnipiac University, which also came out on Wednesday, shows Harris only leading by 48-47 percent in the Badger State among likely voters.
While Harris may have more wide leads over Trump in Pennsylvania and in Michigan, at 51-46 percent in both when looking at a two-way race, she's only up by 49-48 percent in a head-to-head matchup in Wisconsin. While Harris' lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan is outside the margin of error there, it's within Wisconsin's MOE of plus or minus 3 percentage points among 1,075 likely voters.
📊 Swing States Polling by Quinnipiac
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 18, 2024
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 51%
🟥 Trump: 46%
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MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 51%
🟥 Trump: 46%
—
WISCONSIN
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟥 Trump: 48%
—
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This poll shows Harris also facing a net negative favorable rating, as is also the case for Trump. While 46 percent have a favorable view of Harris, 48 percent have an unfavorable view. Forty-six percent also have a favorable view of Trump, while 50 percent have an unfavorable view.
With those polls both included, FiveThirtyEight shows Harris up by +3.0 in Wisconsin, while RealClearPolling shows her leading by +1.1 against Trump.
What is for certain is that this will be a wild time leading up to the election and even in the days following, considering Pennsylvania is warning that it won't be able to announce who won the commonwealth on the actual night of the election.
