Even with Vice President Kamala Harris replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee to face off against former and potentially future President Donald Trump, it still looks to be a close and competitive election. It's also one that will come down to voters in key swing states. Chief among them is Pennsylvania, where Trump managed to win in 2016 but lost to Biden four years later.
On Monday, multiple polls were released that were conducted since the ABC News debate between Trump and Harris took place in Philadelphia. They each show different results when it comes to which candidate is in the lead.
The poll from Suffolk/USA Today, which was conducted September 11-15, showed that Harris leads Trump among likely voters, 48.6-45.6 percent. Just over five percent are undecided. The margin of error is at 4.4 percentage points, putting Harris' lead within that margin.
When it comes to the noteworthy support that the candidates have, Harris leads with Independents, by 43-38 percent. despite how polls have shown the coveted demographic favoring Trump. Independents make only 16 percent of respondents, though. Trump leads even more comfortably with Hispanics, by 50-42 percent, though they make up only 5.2 percent of respondents, so make of it what you will.
📊 Post-debate PENNSYLVANIA poll by Suffolk/USA Today + crosstabs
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 17, 2024
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟥 Trump: 46%
⬜ Undecided: 5%
—
Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 47%
🟥 McCormick: 43%
🟪 Other: 2%
⬜ Undecided: 8%
——
Fav/unfav
• Shapiro: 57-25 (net: +32)
• Casey: 47-35 (+12)
• Fetterman: 44-39 (+5)… pic.twitter.com/tGCqJYCDRl
When it comes to the debate, 63 percent of respondents said they watched "all of it," and another 10.4 watched "most of it."
Despite the lead Harris may have over Trump, the poll contains warning signs for her as well. Forty-eight percent of respondents say they disapprove of Harris' job performance as vice president, while 44.6 percent say they approve of the job she's doing. Biden's numbers are even worse, as 52.4 percent disapprove of the job he's doing as president, including 40.6 percent who say they "strongly disapprove."
The Trump-Vance campaign thus might want to keep tying Harris to the Biden-Harris administration, given that she's the sitting vice president. Trump did do so during last week's debate, albeit at the end.
When asked to recall Trump's job performance as president, his numbers were more even, with 49.4 percent saying they disapproved of the job he did, while 48.6 percent approved.
While Harris has better favorable/unfavorable ratings than Trump, at 49-47 percent compared to 43.2-54.4 percent, that's not the biggest takeaway from those ratings. The poll asked about multiple figures, including Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, who was all but expected to be Harris' running mate, though she ultimately went with Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN). Shapiro has a favorable rating of 56.5 percent, while just 25.2 percent have an unfavorable rating. Funny enough, Harris could likely have avoided the problem of Pennsylvania being so close by picking Shapiro instead, and so it's no wonder that there have been complaints.
A majority of respondents, at 54.4 percent, also believe that the country is on the "wrong track" and a plurality, at 47.2 percent say they are "worse off" than they were four years ago.
Harris does have more of a lead in the bellwether counties of Northampton and Eerie, however, as a write-up from USA Today highlighted.
📊 PENNSYLVANIA GE: Suffolk/USA Today
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 17, 2024
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟪 Other: 1%
---
Bellwether counties
Northampton: Harris 50-45%
Erie: Harris 48-44%
——
Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 47%
🟥 McCormick: 43%
——
Fav/unfav
Harris: 49-47 (net: +2)
Trump: 43-54 (net: -11)
——
#7 (2.9/3.0)… pic.twitter.com/Jo7hcXj112
But, that wasn't the only poll to come out on Monday. Insider Advantage also released a poll, and this one shows Trump in the lead.
Insider Advantage's poll, which was conducted September 14-15 with 800 likely voters, shows Trump leading Harris by 50-48 percent. Just as Harris' lead was within the margin of error for the USA Today/Suffolk poll, so is this Trump lead within the plus or minus 3.46 percentage points margin of error.
📊 PENNSYLVANIA GE: @InsiderPolling
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 17, 2024
🟥 Trump: 50% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 48%
——
Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 49% (+5)
🟥 McCormick: 44%
——
#86 (2.0/3.0) | 800 LV | 9/14-15 | ±3.46%https://t.co/6uRWwQj7rP pic.twitter.com/xgnSpBBfNQ
"Part of this survey was conducted before the attempted assassination of Donald Trump but it also included responses during and after news of the incident broke. The extent to which the news was pervasive or influenced respondents would be guesswork. However the survey gives us at least a partial look at what impact the incident might have on his numbers. All of these battleground states are very tight and well within the margins of error," pollster Matt Towery is quoted as saying.
There was another attempt on Trump's life on Sunday. The suspect, Ryan Wesley Routh, was charged with firearm offenses on Monday.
With both of those polls included, Trump leads Harris by +0.2, per RealClearPolling, though 538 shows Harris leading by +0.8.
On Tuesday, Nate Silver weighed in to point out that "Harris is gaining in post-debate polls," with a mention about Pennsylvania:
We’re really lacking for high-quality state polls, and to the extent there have been some, they’ve been more mixed for Harris. She got a high-quality poll showing her ahead by 3 points in Pennsylvania, for instance, but another one showing her behind 2 points there. Although the model somewhat tries to anticipate movement in state polls based on its trendline adjustment, it can be slightly conservative about this. State polls are really what matter the most to the model in the end.
We're lacking in high-quality data from swing states. The model does make some extrapolations from national polls but errs toward the conservative side. Harris needs more numbers like her +3 in Suffolk's PA poll yesterday.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 17, 2024
Trump weighed in over social media to remind his supporters to "GO VOTE" when it comes to early voting taking place in the commonwealth. Elon Musk chimed in with a quoted repost as well.
Pennsylvania has also found itself in the news lately due to an election integrity victory that the RNC achieved from the Pennsylvania Supreme Court late last week. When it comes to the mail ballots, which go out 50 days before the election, those that are misdated or undated will not be counted.
Early Voting in Pennsylvania. GO VOTE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! DJT
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 17, 2024
Your vote really matters! https://t.co/atMeXSwkxN
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 17, 2024
