With President Joe Biden out of the the race, the polls looked to have shifted in favor when it comes to the race between former and potentially future President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The race in key battleground states, and thus the election overall, still looks to be close and competitive, and is likely a "Toss-Up." We're seeing a flurry of polls come out, especially with all the excited coverage of how Harris is supposedly in the lead.
That being said, what lead she has isn't that high, and it's likely not where she needs to be. This includes in Pennsylvania.
Last week, we covered how The New York Times/Siena College put out a poll where Harris was up +4 against Trump, 50-46 percent. With third-party candidates added to the mix, she leads 46-44 percent. There's plenty of issues there, given how inaccurate such a poll has been in the past, as the Trump-Vance campaign pointed out in a memo that was in response to such a poll. It was also a survey with more 2020 Biden voters.
The New York Times/Siena College also put out another poll of more swing states, which also showed Harris up, but as Leah covered, the Trump-Vance campaign has taken issue with such a poll as well. A memo from the campaign referred to the poll in part as "a perfect example of how wildly inaccurate recalled 2020 vote between President Trump and Joe Biden is being used to create a phony lead for Kamala Harris."
There's been more polls out of Pennsylvania since then. According to the latest Emerson College/RealClePennsylvania poll of the Keystone State, Trump has a slight edge over Harris, by 49-48 percent. With leaners, he leads 51-49 percent. When third-party candidates are added, they're tied at 47 percent each.
New PENNSYLVANIA poll by Emerson College with @RealClearPA
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 16, 2024
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 48%
With leans
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 49%
#9 (2.9/3.0) | 8/13-14 | 1,000 LV | ±3%https://t.co/jfvxAeiTwL pic.twitter.com/sQfZ4Ki0Df
New PENNSYLVANIA poll by Emerson College with @RealClearPA
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 16, 2024
Full field
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
Two-way with leans
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 49%
—
Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 48%
🟥 McCormick: 44%
—
Attorney General
🟥 Sunday: 43%
🟦 DePasquale: 43%
——
Job… https://t.co/qmhbCv3LI7 pic.twitter.com/2Qh8F6tUlf
The poll's write-up noted that Trump has a lead with the key coveted Independent demographic, with 48 percent compared to Harris' 45 percent. Suburban voters, meanwhile favor Harris by 50-47 percent.
Not only are the margins close between Trump and Harris overall, but when it comes to the favorable ratings for each of them. Forty-eight percent of voters have a favorable view of Harris, while 52 percent have a negative view. For Trump, those numbers are at 47 percent and 53 percent for his favorable and negative views, respectively.
The poll also looked at the key U.S. Senate race between vulnerable Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. and Republican Dave McCormick. Casey leads by 48-44 percent in this race where forecasters consider him to have the edge. Decision Desk HQ looks to favor him the most, regarding the race as "Likely Democratic," while others see the race as only being "Lean" or "Tilt Democratic."
The poll was conducted August 13-14 with 1,000 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Cygnal's poll on Pennsylvania also came out on Friday. This time, it's Harris who has the small edge, 47.8-47.1 percent. With third-party candidates added, however, Trump has the edge, 44.3-43.4 percent.
New PENNSYLVANIA poll by Cygnal
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 16, 2024
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 47%
---
Full field
🟥 Trump: 44%
🟦 Harris: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
—
Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 46%
🟥 McCormick: 42%
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 48% (+3 from June)
🟥 GOP: 45% (-2)
——
Fav/unfav
• Shapiro: 56-34 (net: +22)
•… pic.twitter.com/UQFwcTJiem
A press release sent out about the poll highlights how close McCormick is to Casey, as the Democratic incumbent narrowly leads, 46.2-42 percent, with a press release noting that "McCormick remains within striking distance of Casey." The results look to be pretty similar from June, when Casey led McCormick by 45.8 percent to 42.1 percent.
As the top takeaway highlighted:
Senate Ballot: The Senate Ballot has not shifted since July with McCormick remaining at 42%, Bob Casey at 46%, 12% of voters are undecided. Casey is underperforming the generic Senate ballot by 2% overall and by 8% with Democrats. On the full Senate Ballot, Casey 42%, McCormick 39%, John Thomas 3%, Leila Hazou 2%, Marty Selker 1%, Erik Messina 1%, undecided 13%.
In the Senate race, fewer than four-in-ten voters believe Casey deserves reelection (37%) while nearly half (47%) say they want someone new. A third of voters (33%) say it is definitely time for someone new, including a plurality of Independents (39%) and even one-in-five Democrats (19%) also want someone new.
"For all that has happened in Presidential politics over the last month and a half, the race for Senate in Pennsylvania is becoming immune to political volatility. The withdrawal of President Biden has done nothing to improve the reelection prospects of Senator Casey," said Cygnal and Trump 2020 Pollster, Brock McCleary in a statement.
Trump and Harris also had similar favorable ratings with such a poll as well. While 45.1 percent say they have a favorable rating of Trump, 46.8 percent say so about Harris. When it comes to an unfavorable rating, that number is at 53.3 percent for Trump, and at 51.2 percent for Harris.
The Cygnal poll was conducted August 14-15 with 800 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.41 percentage points.
McCormick is certainly putting up a fight in this race. He has run brilliant ads tying Harris and her extreme policy views to Casey, as well as how Casey misled on inflation concerns. And, while other vulnerable incumbents, like Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Jon Tester (D-MT) are skipping the DNC this week, Casey will be there.
There's other factors that make the presidential race in Pennsylvania even more of a nailbiter. As of early Sunday morning, RealClearPolling, which includes the Emerson poll in their averages, shows Trump and Harris tied in the commonwealth.
Whichever candidate wins at the top of the ticket could very well have an effect on down-ballot races, though it's worth reminding that the Cygnal poll noted Casey is underperforming.
However, as Matt covered last week, the Pennsylvania Department of State warned that we may not actually know on Election Night who will win their 19 electoral votes. Depending on how close the overall election is, that may effect when we'll find out who wins the presidency.
Harris would likely have had an even better chance in Pennsylvania, had she gone with the commonwealth's popular sitting governor, Josh Shapiro. Although reports mention his interview not going so well, and how he didn't want to leave the governorship, it can't be ignored that there were concerns from anti-Israel forces in the Democratic Party when it comes to Shapiro being Jewish.
Even with this supposed surge that Harris has experienced in the polls--which may not last and actually isn't as good as it may seem to be--she could have done much better and certainly would have won the 19 electoral votes had she gone with Shapiro.
