When it comes to the where the race stands for the 2024 presidential election, former and potentially future President Donald Trump looks to be winning back some key states. He may have narrowly lost Arizona against President Joe Biden in 2020, but you wouldn't know it from where the polls currently stand. The Grand Canyon State is often included in the polls that specifically look to voters in swing states, and it also tends to be among Trump's best. That's not hard to see why, especially with the recent release of polling showing Biden faltering on the economy and immigration, key issues there and around the country.
On Sunday, CBS News released a poll out of Arizona and Florida, where Trump leads by +5 (52-47 percent) and +9 (54-45 percent), respectively. Likely voters for Trump are also more likely to support the presumptive Republican nominee--with 66 percent saying they've decided--compared to the 61 percent of likely Biden voters who say so about the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Trump has a 5-pt lead over Biden in AZ and a 9 pt lead in FL. https://t.co/gyQRQRZTiL pic.twitter.com/QruBEdFKGI
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) May 19, 2024
Trump won Florida in 2016 and 2020, but lost Arizona in 2020, by just 0.3 percent. It's likely that the two states were tied together, given that there's ballot initiatives in both Arizona and Florida on abortion. Democrats think such causes could put Florida in play, though they also have to contend with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) looking to help retire Biden.
The Biden reelection campaign has been fixating on abortion nationwide, so it's no surprise that they would try to make it a major issue in these two states. The CBS News poll write-up has some pretty bad news about such a narrative, though:
When Arizona and Florida attracted the national spotlight over their abortion battles, this question arose: Would the issue upend the presidential contests in those states — or offset the drag on President Biden that inflation and the border have had on him nationally?
And the answer, right now, is no. Biden trails in Arizona by 5 points despite winning it last time, and Trump is comfortably up by 9 points in Florida, after winning it twice in the last two cycles.
Because despite broad support for abortion rights in both states, that effect doesn't all accrue to Mr. Biden — or hurt Trump — as much as people's views on finances and immigration shape the contests.
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First, while abortion is important, it isn't as important as the economy and inflation.
Second, support for abortion access — either in principle or expressed as an amendment vote — is high, but there is not a one-to-one connection with voting for Biden.
This is partly because there are sizable numbers of Republicans who support abortion's legality in at least some cases, but they vote for Trump.
...
And while many Democrats say the abortion issue motivates them, Biden still shows overall trouble motivating parts of his regular Democratic base.
That abortion doesn't look to be affecting the race in Arizona is especially problematic for Biden. With this CBS News poll included, RealClearPolling has Trump up by +5.2 in the state. Last month, there was considerable attention surrounding a move from the Arizona Supreme Court to uphold an 1864 abortion law, including and especially from the Biden camp. Both Republicans and Democrats expressed concerns it went too far, and the state legislature recently repealed the law.
Unlike Florida, the state also has a Democratic governor in place, Katie Hobbs, who beat Republican Kari Lake in 2022.
The Biden reelection camp, especially when it comes to the Biden HQ X account, has been trying to portray Trump as an anti-abortion radical who would even ban IVF. Such a claim is especially dishonest, given that his video message from last month spoke about a need to protect the procedure.
Their narrative further falls apart when taking a look at the polls, given that close to a majority in Arizona, at 49 percent, say they give him neither "credit" nor "blame" for the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022. Twelve percent say they give him "credit," while 39 percent say they give him "blame."
It also looks like voters believe the main point of Trump's video message, which is to communicate his view that abortion should be left to the states. In Arizona, a plurality, at 44 percent, believe Trump will "leave abortion to the states to decide" if he's reelected.
Democrats have made considerable mention about how abortion is about "rights and freedoms." A plurality of registered voters in Arizona say that Biden would "threaten your rights and freedoms" and a plurality say the same about Trump. With 45 percent and 46 percent saying so, respectively, they're statistically tied. More voters also say that Trump would "protect your rights and freedoms," with 40 percent saying so, compared to the 34 percent who say so about Biden.
A majority of registered voters in Arizona, at 53 percent, also say that overturning Roe and "what you've seen regarding the issue of abortion in Arizona" does not actually affect their motivation, which is another blow to the Democrats' narrative.
While 51 percent of likely voters in Arizona say that abortion is a "major factor," that actually makes it one of the less important factors. Twenty percent also say it's "not a factor," the third highest issue where voters say so.
In contrast, 82 percent say that the economy is a "major factor," and 78 percent say inflation is. Seventy percent say so about "the state of democracy," while 61 percent say so about "the U.S.-Mexico border." That's all bad news for Biden.
About half of voters say abortion is a major factor in their vote for president, far below the economy, inflation, and the state of democracy.https://t.co/gyQRQRZTiL pic.twitter.com/e4Inw96WB0
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) May 19, 2024
Over two-thirds of registered voters say the national economy is "fairly bad" (34 percent) or "very bad" (34 percent), and their view on the economy in Arizona isn't much better, as 41 percent say it's going "fairly bad" and another 17 percent say it's "very bad."
Other findings for Biden on the economy look particularly bad, as 77 percent of respondents say prices on goods and services are "going up" and and a majority of registered voters say they think Biden cares "not much" (24 percent) or "none" (33 percent) when it comes to "the economic situation for people like you." While 34 percent say Trump cares "none," registered voters are more likely to say Trump cares, with 49 percent saying he cares "a lot" or "some," than the 43 percent who say so about Biden. Perhaps even most damning when it comes to economic issues, is that a majority, at 52 percent, say Biden's policies if he wins in 2024, will make them "financially worse off." A plurality, at 45 percent, say Trump's policies will make them "financially better off."
Immigration also doesn't do Biden any favors.
While 68 percent of registered voters say the Biden administration has been "too easy on immigrants trying to cross the border," a plurality, at 48 percent, say the Trump administration "handled things about right." Further, 71 percent of registered voters also say a decrease in "the number of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border" would be better for Arizona. A majority, at 52 percent, of registered voters, also believe that immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life in Arizona "worse." Further problematic is how a plurality of registered voters in Arizona, at 48 percent, believe Biden's policies prioritize immigrants over U.S. citizens.
Most AZ voters say Trump's policies would put the interests of U.S. citizens ahead of immigrants. Half say Biden would put the interests of immigrants first. https://t.co/gyQRQRZTiL pic.twitter.com/cSHGVXh4Uf
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) May 19, 2024
In AZ, 52% of voters say recent immigrants have made life in AZ worse. Up from 35% in 2020. https://t.co/gyQRQS0r8j pic.twitter.com/nchQnaUBno
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) May 19, 2024
The Biden administration, including Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, has been slow to call the situation at the southern border a crisis. However, a plurality of registered voters in Arizona, at 49 percent, acknowledge that it is one.
There's not much hope on this front either for Biden, given that 68 percent believe the administration is "not taking steps" to "reduce the number of migrants coming across the U.S.-Mexico border." If Trump is reelected, however, 86 percent believe he "would take steps."
The polls were conducted May 10-16, with 1,510 adults in Arizona, including 1,214 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. In Florida, there were 1,576 adults surveyed, including 1,209 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
The poll came up during CBS News' "Face the Nation" on Sunday, as host Margaret Brennan was speaking with Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), who is once again serving as the chair of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC).
Not only does Peters believe Democrats can keep control of the Senate, despite how chances are looking quite good for Republicans, especially in comparison to 2022, he actually tried to spin the losing issues of the economy and immigration as wins for Biden.
Peters even denigrated voters in a way on the immigration, claiming "it is a perception issue. It's not a fact issue. The facts are clearly wrong when it comes to that."
CBS POLL:
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 19, 2024
"In Florida and Arizona ... by almost 3-to-1, voters say President Trump would be better for their finances than President Biden."
"In Arizona, Trump has a ten point advantage on the specific question of 'who cares about people like you a lot?'" pic.twitter.com/kZsuhzWhY9
President Biden "absolutely" needs to talk about the border more, says @SenGaryPeters (D-MI), as CBS News polling shows that Donald Trump's immigration policies are viewed more favorably than Biden's.
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) May 19, 2024
"That's what a campaign is about," he says. pic.twitter.com/RFBmbKqMsV
