The 2024 presidential election is looking increasingly competitive, with some expressing what looks to be a premature hope about President Joe Biden's reelection chances. It could very well be a close race in this rematch between Biden and former and potentially future President Donald Trump, especially when it comes to the recent release of a top poll at the national level.
Last Thursday, Marquette Law School released its latest poll. Although it’s located in the key swing state of Wisconsin, this poll examines the race from the national level. Guy has previously dubbed it as "the gold standard in Wisconsin."
As it turns out, at least according to this poll, Biden is now ahead. He's also gained considerably since Marquette released its poll in February. Among registered voters, Trump and Biden are tied at 50 percent each. But, among likely voters, Biden takes the lead against Trump, 52-48 percent. Trump, however, leads when third party candidates are factored in. Trump has 41 percent to Biden's 38 percent, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has a not insignificant 14 percent. Other candidates are in the single digits.
🇺🇲 National GE: @MULawPoll (likely voters)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 4, 2024
🟦 Biden 52% [+4]
🟥 Trump 48% [-4]
Net 8 point swing towards Biden
[+/- change vs February]
—
538: #3 (3.0/3.0) | 3/18-28 | 674 LVhttps://t.co/uwBZTTk3hE pic.twitter.com/eQlHYsRG1o
As a write-up for the poll mentions:
In the most recent prior Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, Trump was the choice of 51% and Biden the pick of 49% among registered voters, while Trump won 52% and Biden 48% among likely voters.
These results include voters who initially said they would vote for someone else or would not vote, but were then asked their preference if they had to choose one of the two candidates. In the initial question, 15% said they would vote for someone else or they would not vote. Trump received initial support from 44% and Biden from 42%.
What is puzzling about Biden taking the lead is how he's doing among Independents. Biden actually leads among this key demographic of voters who helped him win in 2020. In this Marquette poll, Biden leads 54-46 percent against Trump. Not only did Biden jump +10 points, Trump dropped -8 points.
The poll also shows that Biden enjoys more support among Democrats — 93 percent — than Trump does among Republicans — 88 percent. This may be another factor when it comes to Trump's drop and Biden's lead. In the February poll, Trump had the support of 93 percent support of Republicans, while Biden had the support of 91 percent of Democrats.
But, while Biden won Independents in 2020, he's had a low approval rating among them, and other polls have shown Trump ahead with the voting bloc, even comfortably.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Among registered voters
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 4, 2024
🟦 Biden 50% [+1]
🟥 Trump 50% [-1]
.
Independents
🟦 Biden 54% [+10]
🟥 Trump 46% [-8]
——
🟥 Trump 41% [-1]
🟦 Biden 38% [-1]
🟨 RFK Jr 14% [+1]
🟨 West 5% [+2]
🟩 Stein 2% [=]
[+/- change vs February]@MULawPoll | 3/18-28 | 868 RV | ±4.3% https://t.co/JI5uIO2PUt pic.twitter.com/WOfvHYqlMw
When it comes to polls on Independents, Sarah covered last week how a recent NPR/ Marist poll showed that Trump was leading with Independents, 52-45 percent.
It isn't just Biden's surge with Independents over the last few months that is a curious point when it comes to the poll's findings. Biden has an edge despite how he has a lower favorable rating of 40 percent, while 60 percent disapprove. This is unchanged from February's poll. Trump has a 43 percent favorable rating, while 56 percent disapprove, which is all slightly worse than the previous poll.
What's particularly telling is that among those who have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump, Biden leads by double digits among registered voters, 59-41 percent.
But, where there's a big benefit to Trump is when it comes to who voters trust more on the issues. If voters ultimately pick our next president based on the actual issues, Trump has a very good chance come November.
Issues like immigration and economy have been key priorities for voters, and Trump also has had a consistent edge. While abortion doesn't seem to be a major motivating issue for overall voters, it is for Democrats. Biden also has the edge on this issue. Trump has released a video message on his position on abortion, which the Biden HQ has already quickly responded with yet another misleading take on his position on a major issue.
Of the seven issues voters were asked about, Trump does better on four of them. For most of them, his leads are also much higher than Biden's leads on other issues. The breakdown is as follows among registered voters:
- "Immigration and border security," Trump enjoys 54 percent of voters who say he's better on the issue, while just 27 percent say so about Biden. Trump has been slightly but steadily improving. Twelve percent say "neither."
- On the economy, Trump enjoys a lead of 51-32 percent on who voters say would handle better. Only 9 percent say "neither."
- When it comes to "Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza," Trump has a slight edge of 42-32 percent over Biden. Particularly telling is how 17 percent say "neither."
- Trump's edge on "Foreign relations" is smaller, at 41-39 over Biden, and again, a not insignificant 12 percent say "neither."
- Biden has a small lead on "Medicare & Social Security," an issue he and Democrats have for years repeatedly claimed that Republicans want to take away. Even still, his lead is only 39-36 percent. Eleven percent still say "neither," and 14 percent say "both about the same."
- On the generic issue of "Health care," Biden's lead is 40-34 percent. Thirteen percent say neither, while 13 percent say "both about the same."
- Biden has his biggest lead on "Abortion policy," and even then it's only by 9 points, at 42-33 percent. Also, 15 percent say "neither" and 10 percent say "both about the same."
Immigration is such a major issue, that it also gets its own question, as do the issues of the economy and abortion. The immigration issue is particularly of note, especially for how dangerous the findings are to Biden and his reelection campaign's false narratives:
On the issue of illegal immigration and border control, 47% strongly agree with the statement, “The Biden administration’s border policies have created a crisis of uncontrolled illegal migration into the country.” An additional 22% somewhat agree. Fifteen percent strongly disagree with the statement, and 16% somewhat disagree.
Thirty-six percent strongly favor “deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries,” with 26% who somewhat favor that. Twelve percent strongly oppose deportations and 25% somewhat oppose.
When it comes to phrases used to describe the candidates, the results are brutal for both of them. Some are also not entirely consistent with other polls. However, what is consistent is that a majority feel that Biden is not up to the task for another term. A majority, 55 percent, say it "very well" describes the 81-year-old Biden that he is "too old to be president." A plurality, 29 percent, say this "somewhat well" describes Trump, who is just a few years younger at 77-years-old.
The poll was conducted March 18-28, 2024 with 868 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. Among the 674 likely voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
What do we make of this poll? There are certainly reasons to be cautious for the Trump campaign, though it's also likely worth giving up hope, at least not yet. It means the election is going to be a competitive one, which makes sense as we're a little less than seven months away from Election Day.
Not only is this poll one to watch for "the gold standard" moniker, but it also could present an opportunity when it comes to how the Trump campaign should strive to win over the voters who don't like Biden but who are wary to vote for Trump. He also should work on bringing those Republican voters home. Of course, this is also just one poll of many to watch for the 2024 presidential election.
Further, as mentioned above, if there's anyone who is going to get too cocky about supposedly improved poll numbers, let it be the Biden supporters. Late last month we covered how there were overly enthusiastic reactions to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showing Biden making some ground in battleground states. A Bloomberg opinion piece from Nia-Malika Henderson even claimed, "Biden Is on a Roll in Key Swing States."
This wasn't a one time thing, though. Sure enough, in reaction to this Marquette poll, Newsweek published a piece on how "Joe Biden's Astonishing Polling Comeback." It also referenced the Morning Consult poll. On Monday, in response to Trump's position on abortion, it published another piece claiming, "Donald Trump Panics as Poll Numbers Slide." Yet another piece from last week went with, "Joe Biden Crushes Donald Trump in New Swing State Poll," which was in reference to the Franklin & Marshall poll showing Biden up +10 in Pennsylvania. However, as we covered when analyzing that poll, Biden's lead is much smaller when third party candidates are factored in.
Not all our blindsided. On Monday, Roll Call published an opinion piece from Stuart Rothenberg acknowledging, "For Biden, being tied in national polls isn’t good enough."
RealClearPolling, which does not include this poll in its averages as of Monday afternoon, still has Trump ahead of Biden. He leads by +0.3, with 46.2 percent to Biden's 45.9 percent. Trump's lead increases when other candidates are thrown into the mix.
The other recent polls included are I&I/TPP, which shows Biden up +3 among registered voters (43-40 percent); Emerson, which shows Trump up +1 among registered voters (46-45 percent); and Rasmussen Reports, which shows Trump up +8 among registered voters (49-41 percent).
