Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) has had something of a topsy turvy month. After months of speculation and skepticism from fellow Republicans, he announced earlier this month that he would run in the Republican Senate primary. Ultimately, though, his campaign only lasted six days. When he did drop out, it wasn't even clear if he would run for reelection in the House, then. On Sunday however, 10 days after he suspended his Senate campaign, it was reported that Rosendale filed to run for reelection.
The filing included in a report from KTVH is dated February 24, this past Saturday. When asked for comment, the Rosendale campaign merely provided the outlet with a preview. "The Congressman is spending the weekend working with his House and Senate colleagues to find solutions to fund the government ahead of the deadline on Friday. He should have an announcement soon," the campaign said.
There's another threat of a possible government shutdown looming if an agreement isn't reached by the March 1 deadline, after the third continuing resolution (CR) for this fiscal year was passed last month. There's another approaching deadline of March 8.
Rosendale wouldn't be the only one running, though. Not long after Rosendale dropped his Senate bid, KTVQ reported that there were nine candidates in the race. Another report from KTVH noted that more candidates may still file.
Those candidates look committed to still running even if Rosendale does run for reelection, though there might still be an incumbency advantage, as KTVQ noted:
"It's going to be tough," said Dr. Jason Adkins, a former MSU Billings political science professor.
Adkins, who is now an assistant professor of political science at Morehead State University in Kentucky, says with that many in the race it will not take a majority to win the primary.
"The fact that you don't need 50 percent, you only need 30, a third of the vote or slightly more to win is going to be difficult for political experts to figure out who has a chance to win or not."
Still, Adkins says Rosendale as the incumbent would have the advantage if he does enter the race.
So far, none of the nine candidates is dropping out of the race, even knowing Rosendale may run for reelection.
The filing deadline in Montana is March 11, with the primary taking place on June 4. So far, the race to represent Montana's 2nd Congressional District still favors the Republican candidate. Meanwhile, the Senate race is a "Toss-Up," with Tim Sheehy, the CEO of Bridger Aerospace and a former Navy SEAL running to challenge vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester. Sheehy has the endorsement from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and former and potentially future President Donald Trump, the latter of which came the same day that Rosendale announced his short-lived Senate run.
In his endorsement for Sheehy, Trump tellingly noted: "I also respect Matt Rosendale, and was very happy to Endorse him in the past - and will Endorse him again in the future should he decide to change course and run for his Congressional Seat."
BREAKING: @realDonaldTrump endorsed @SheehyforMT pic.twitter.com/iW9gZRCWc3
— Mike Berg (@MikeKBerg) February 9, 2024
NRSC Chairman Steve Daines, who is also from Montana, also expressed hope in the past that Rosendale would stay where he was. "I like Matt Rosendale. I hope he stays in the House and builds seniority," Daines told CNN last December.
Rosendale easily won the November 2022 election to represent the district, with 56.6 percent of the vote. That wasn't the case for his ill-fated Senate run against Tester in 2018, though, when he lost by 3.5 points.
In addition to those concerns about how he had lost before, fellow Republicans raised concerns about Rosendale's fundraising abilities--or lack thereof--as well as his Maryland accent. He also made an enemy out of pro-Trump speaker Alex Bruesewitz, who was supposed to speak at the Montana GOP earlier this month but told Townhall he was disinvited due to pressure from Rosendale and his allies.
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