With just weeks left until the Iowa Republican caucuses will see the first tallies put on the primary board, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate Hawkeye State polls including the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll that has the 45th president drawing 51 percent first-choice support among likely caucusgoers.
Beyond his substantial polling advantage in Iowa that shows his lead growing as the caucus date approaches, it's "the largest recorded so close to a competitive Republican caucus in this Iowa poll’s history," according to NBC News. The historic polling performance of Trump, according to the outlet, is "fueled by majorities of evangelical and first-time likely caucusgoers, as well as by nearly three-quarters of Republicans who believe Trump can defeat President Joe Biden next year." In addition, NBC News noted that the latest Iowa poll "finds the former president enjoying more enthusiasm and commitment from his supporters than his rivals do ahead of the Jan. 15 contest in Iowa."
More from NBC News on what respondents in Iowa had to say and what the latest numbers mean:
“With all the other candidates, it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter what they say, it doesn’t matter what they do. Because automatically, my vote is going to Trump no matter what,” said poll respondent Timothy Blackerby, 67, of Missouri Valley, Iowa.
“They can promise me a million dollars,” Blackerby added. “I tell them to keep it. And I would still vote for Trump.”
J. Ann Selzer, the Iowa pollster who has been conducting this survey over the last three decades, said “the field may have shrunk, but it may have made Donald Trump even stronger. I would call his lead commanding at this point.”
Trump's lead has expanded even as the field of his Republican challengers contracted. In October, Trump was the first-choice for 43 percent of Iowa's likely caucusgoers — now he's at 51 percent. Compared with the other Republican candidates, Trump has shown more growth as other candidates suspended their bids, suggesting that Trump supporters had at least flirted with the idea of an alternative to challenge Biden in 2024, and that Trump's lead could grow as the field shrinks more following Iowa and New Hampshire.
Over the same October to December timeframe, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis saw his support increase from 16 percent to 19 percent while former Ambassador Nikki Haley held steady at 16 percent. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy saw his support increase slightly to five percent from four percent and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie held at four percent.
Still, winning Iowa is not an automatic fast track to the GOP nomination. And pollster Selzer warned in her comments to NBC News that the Iowa caucuses remain "unpredictable," invoking Sen. Rick Santorum's 2012 victory on caucus night. "Everything that could happen has happened in this contest," she said.
