We've long talked about how if there's top Senate races to watch next year, it'll be West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. We're sure to keep talking about those three races, especially if Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) decides he's running for reelection, regardless as to if he remains a Democrat or runs as an Independent. Especially compared to the 2022 Senate map, the 2024 map is looking particularly favorable when it comes to the seats that Democrats have to defend. New polling out of Montana shows that this race where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is running for reelection indeed looks to indeed be competitive.
Last week, Emerson College released a poll for Ohio, showing that Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown was statistically tied with all three of his Republican challengers. He slightly led businessman Bernie Moreno, but state Sen. Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose had a few points on him.
This week, Emerson College released a poll out for Montana, between Tester and Republican Tim Sheey, a former Navy SEAL and CEO of an aerial firefighting company. He declared in late June, and already has several endorsements from other Republicans Montanans.
Tester has 39 percent to Sheehy's 35 percent. Although Tester has what may seem like a more sizable lead, especially compared to the matchups in the Ohio race, that lead is still within the margin of error. Further, 21 percent are undecided, and 6 percent say they'd vote for someone else.
Spencer Kimball, Emerson's polling executive director, focused on the gender gap in his statement included in the poll's write-up. "There is a significant gender divide among Montana voters," he said. "Tester leads Sheehy among women by 16 points, 46% to 30%, whereas Sheehy leads among men by eight points, 40% to 32%."
Montana could be interesting when it comes to the Republican primary. Rep. Matt Rosendale has considered running as well. That's tricky, given that he ran against Tester in 2018 and lost with 46.8 percent of the vote to Tester's 50.3 percent. While some forecasters had considered the race to slightly favor Tester, Cook Political Report saw that race as a "Toss-Up." It was seen as something as an embarrassing loss, given that Republicans did okay at the Senate level that year.
Not only has Rosendale run for the race before and lost it, he's irked the powers that be over there. Montana's other senator, Republican Steve Daines, also serves as the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chairman.
As a report from TheMessenger noted earlier this month:
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines, a fellow Montanan, has urged Rosendale to stay in the House and build seniority for their home state. Daines has thrown his weight behind Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and CEO of an aerial firefighting company. Sheehy has also received endorsements from Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke, Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, and several GOP senators.
The report, which we also covered at the time, was released right before Rosendale voted to oust Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as Speaker of the House. He was one of eight Republicans who joined with all Democrats to vote in favor of Rep. Matt Gaetz's (R-FL) resolution to vacate the chair earlier this month. Rosendale had also voted against McCarthy during the 15 rounds in his quest to become speaker, something finally achieved on the early morning hours of January 7.
Appearing in a donor Zoom call alongside Gaetz and Steve Bannon with footage obtained by TheMessenger, Rosendale revealed that "when a lot of people, unfortunately, were voting to have a 270, 280 Republican House," he "was praying each evening for a small majority, because I've recognized that small majority was the only way that we were going to advance a conservative agenda and that if it was the right majority, that if we had six or seven very strong individuals, we would drag the conference over to the right, and we were able to do that!" Rosendale is a Catholic who regularly attends daily Mass.
Those comments didn't sit too well with Daines, nor with Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), the latter who even posted his thoughts directly to his campaign X account.
He was referring to this story https://t.co/XW5bU1fOLh
— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) October 3, 2023
Maryland Matt Rosendale prays for Democrats to win elections? Did God answer his prayers in 2018 when Jon Tester humiliated him?
— Tom Cotton (@TomCottonAR) October 4, 2023
This is just one of many, many reasons that Maryland Matt won’t come within a country mile of the Senate. https://t.co/3JNnSyD2Na
Further, former and potentially future President Donald Trump won the state in 2016 with 56.2 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 35.7 percent. He also went on to win it in 2020 with 56.9 percent of the vote to President Joe Biden's 40.5 percent.
In a hypothetical rematch with Biden for 2024, Trump once again leads by double digits. This poll shows him with 49 percent to Biden's 28 percent, while 16 percent say they support someone else and 7 percent are undecided.
Ticket splitting could be big in Montana. "Voters split their ticket on the U.S. Senate and presidential elections in 2024," Kimball noted. "Twelve percent of Trump voters plan to split their ticket and vote Tester for Senate. This is driven by Tester’s support among independents and women voters. Among independents, Tester outperforms Biden by 11 points, with 38% compared to Biden’s 27%. Among women, Tester outperforms Biden by 15 points, with 46% compared to Biden’s 31%."
As CNN reported in July, Trump won't endorse Rosendale if he runs for Senate. That's not surprising, given that Rosendale memorably rejected a call from Trump when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) tried to hand him the phone so the former president could talk to him about supporting McCarthy for speaker back in January.
Candidate quality likely matters, including and especially when it comes to going up against an incumbent, even a vulnerable one in a red state.
The Emerson poll also shows Biden underwater by 40 points in Montana, with 62.5 percent saying they disapprove of the job he's doing as president, compared to the 22 percent who approve. That's not far off from the 15.5 percent who say they have no opinion.
The poll was conducted October 1-4, with 447 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
What could hurt Tester is his own comments in favor of Biden. As we covered in August, Tester claimed during an NBC News interview at the time that he believed Biden is "absolutely 100 percent with it."
"He’s doing a good job. I think folks are making a bigger deal out of it than it is," Tester claimed. "But, you know, we’ll see what I’m like at 82. I doubt I’ll be running for president."
Forecasters currently consider the race to slightly favor Tester or to be a toss-up.
Jon Tester: Joe Biden is “absolutely 100% with it… He’s doing a good job. I think folks are making a bigger deal out of it than it is.”
— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) August 17, 2023
Roll the tape! #MTSen pic.twitter.com/fcyGI1Tgso
