The 2022 midterm election ended up being a disappointment for Republicans, especially when it comes to Democrats gaining a seat in the Senate. The 2024 Senate map, however, is looking to be a lot more favorable to Republicans, especially when it comes to the seats that vulnerable Democratic incumbents are defending. One of the top races to watch, in addition to the Senate races in Montana and West Virginia, is Ohio, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is indeed running for reelection. A recent poll from Emerson College, though, shows he may have an uphill battle on his hands.
As the poll's write-up warned, "Brown Faces Competitive General Election," with Republican senate candidates showing a slight lead over Brown or only a couple of points behind. All of the match ups are within the margin of error.
State Sen. Matt Dolan has 38 percent support to Brown's 36 percent support, while Secretary of State Frank LaRose leads with 39 percent to Brown's 38 percent support. Brown, however, does poll better than businessman Bernie Moreno, with 35 percent to Moreno's 33 percent support. That match up also saw the most voters undecided, at 32 percent.
OHIO POLL
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 10, 2023
2024 U.S. Senate Matchups
Matt Dolan 38%
Sherrod Brown 36%
Frank LaRose 39%
Sherrod Brown 38%
Bernie Moreno 33%
Sherrod Brown 35%https://t.co/L31eLhN9TU pic.twitter.com/F6BrIPTD4V
Brown may be facing an enthusiasm problem, Polling Director Spencer Kimball noted. "With just over a year until the 2024 Ohio U.S. Senate election, many established Democratic demographics, like voters under 30 and Black voters, are demonstrating a lower level of enthusiasm toward Brown," he pointed out. "It is not that these voters are supporting the Republican candidate over Brown, they are choosing to select someone else or note they are undecided at this point. About a third of voters under 30 indicate they would vote for someone else or are undecided in a Brown/Dolan matchup; 38% of Black voters indicate the same."
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There's positive news for Brown, though, in that he leads with Independents. "An encouraging sign for Brown is that he leads Republicans by several points among independents voters," Kimball said.
For instance, Brown has 27 percent support among Independents compared to Dolan's 21 percent. He also has 27 percent support among Independents compared to LaRose's 18 percent, and 26 percent support among Independents compared to Moreno's 17 percent.
But, Brown is running for reelection in a presidential election year. President Joe Biden, who is also running for reelection, is rather unpopular in Ohio. A majority, at 58 percent, disapprove of the job he's doing in this same poll, while just 25 percent approve of the job he's doing.
Meanwhile, former and potentially future President Donald Trump leads Biden in a hypothetical matchup by even larger margins than he won the state in 2016 and 2020, by about 8 points. In this recent poll, Trump with 45 percent to Biden's 33 percent, while 12 percent support someone else and 11 percent are undecided.
Again, voter enthusiasm may play a role here.
"Trump leads Biden by 12 points in Ohio, a larger lead than his 2020 and 2016 victories of about eight points," Kimball noted. "Like in the U.S. Senate race, younger and minority voters are more likely to be undecided or voting for someone else--indicating lower enthusiasm for Democratic candidates both at the statewide and national level."
Despite the president's unpopularity in Ohio, Brown has not shied away from him. In a POLITICO piece from February, "2024’s sprawling Senate map comes down to these 3 Dems," the incumbent senator is mentioned as not having any problem campaigning with Biden. He's quoted as saying he's "fine" running while Biden is on the ballot. He also said he'd "assume" he'd campaign with the president.
"I run my own race, and my own brand. So, I’m not going to run from Biden," Brown said, claiming "He’s also delivered more than any president in recent history."
The Senate race is currently considered a "Toss-Up" by all of the forecasters. The primary will take place on March 19.
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