Next year's Ohio Senate race has long been considered one of the top races to watch. Incumbents are almost never easy to beat, but 2024 looks to be a particularly favorable map for Republicans, especially when it comes to the seats Democrats are defending. Among them is Ohio's Sen. Sherrod Brown, the only statewide Democrat left, besides court justices. While the state may be getting increasingly redder, Brown still outperforms and he could still be hard to beat. But, if there's the right candidate to challenge him, Republicans could pull off a victory.
Last week, Causeway Solutions released the results of a poll they had conducted in late May for the Leadership for Ohio Fund, showing Secretary of State Frank LaRose with a commanding lead in the primary. This is despite how LaRose has yet to declare.
Townhall has received further insight to do with the primary model, reiterating a lead for LaRose. "The model clearly shows an advantage for LaRose at this point in the calendar, and there are other data points in the model that indicate LaRose is the best candidate, not only in the Primary but in the General Election as well," the polling memo read.
Last week, a poll was released showing yet-to-declare @FrankLaRose in the lead for the OH Senate primary. Townhall has since received more details, this time about the primary model, which reiterate the commanding support that LaRose has. Stay tuned for my write-up! pic.twitter.com/ukdJqEfuEl
— Rebecca Downs (@RebeccaRoseGold) June 12, 2023
According to the Primary Model, 45.9 percent are still undecided. But, LaRose enjoys 35.3 percent support, a wide lead among state Sen. Matt Dolan who declared in January, and businessman Bernie Moreno who declared in April. They have 9.7 percent and 4.7 percent support, respectively.
On average, just under 1.1 million Ohio voters participate in the primary. The pollsters "expect the 2024 Primary turnout to be right about the average."
LaRose also looks to have more potential support among undecided voters. While such voters are open to all three candidates, LaRose has the highest consideration score at 88 percent, compared to Moreno's 70 percent, and Dolan's 59 percent.
Last November's midterm elections were disappointing, to be sure. Democrats not only hung onto their majority in the Senate, they grew it by one seat, as retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania was replaced by a Democrat, now Sen. John Fetterman. But, in addition to a more favorable map, it seems that the GOP truly grasps what's at stake here.
The polling memo cites National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, who spoke of a need for his party to appeal to voters "beyond the Republican base." As Daines mentioned, "that's something that every candidate has got to look in the mirror and say 'am I a candidate that can first bring the Republican base together and also extend an appeal to independent voters?' That’s the recipe."
Daines had also stressed the importance of winning Independents when speaking with Townhall last November.
Going along with Ohio being one of the top races to watch, the memo notes that such a "'recipe' will be crucial in the state of Ohio, where Sherrod Brown outperforms other Democrats with Moderate Voters."
When it comes to the factors that the Republican nominee has to overcome, Brown has a 12-point lead ahead of his generic Republican opponent when it comes to those "modeled as swing voters and the most likely to turn out in 2024." He is also "currently significantly overperforming a generic Democrat among the most perusable voters in Ohio."
Although a generic Republican is at plus-12 with mid and low-turnout who lean GOP and swing voters, Brown has a 2-point advantage. The memo also notes that such group of voters represents 30 percent of the overall electorate, and Brown leads with them. "If [Brown] continues to portray himself as the moderate and pull support from Swing and Lean Republican voters, he will be incredibly difficult to beat," the memo warns.
But, there are some hopeful takeaways to be sure, especially LaRose's strengths as a candidate. The polling memo stresses that LaRose has won an election statewide four times. Most recently, he won reelection as secretary of state by over 20 points.
Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and now Sen. JD Vance--also a Republican--who replaced retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman, were also on the ballot last November. While DeWine "expanded his coalition by picking up 16 points with independents, 15 points with women, and 20 points among union households, leading to a landslide victory," Vance underperformed DeWine. LaRose, despite running a down ballot race, outperformed Vance in every county.
It's even more significant where LaRose outperformed Vance the most, which was in the northern and northeastern counties. The memo notes that this is "where Brown’s strongest base of support has been in previous elections." Later still the memo reiterated that "LaRose support is widespread, including strong numbers in the more traditional Democratic areas of North and Northeast Ohio where Brown runs strongest."
Another cause for hope is that the polling memo indicates "Parental Involvement in Schools" is the issue "that spreads across the entire electorate more than any other." That's bad news for Democrats. "The shutdowns during the pandemic and social and emotional issues of the past few years are clearly on the minds of voters heading into the 2024 elections," the memo adds.
The memo also highlights concerns with Moreno, in that the "very small number" in the model is from conservative primary voters, which could be a positive for the primary, but will end up being "a significant challenge" in the general election.
The polling memo has a stark warning about Dolan as well, in that his support is older and male. Brown does well with women voters, and DeWine won so handily in part due to improvements with them. Brown won in 2018 because he over performed with women--especially independent women--in addition to moderates and union households.
When it comes to Dolan's weakness in this regard, the memo points out that the "lack of support from women should be concerning, as that is a group the Republican Party has struggled with over the past few cycles."
A slight majority, at 52 percent, of the undecided voters are women.
With regards to any possible endorsement from former and potentially future President Donald Trump, he has already spoken highly of Moreno this cycle. At a campaign event for Vance last September, LaRose touted that he was the only sitting secretary of state to have earned Trump's endorsement for 2022. Forty percent of the modeled primary voters "would be moved by some degree by a Trump endorsement in the race," the memo notes.
It appears that the latest news on an announcement has been that LaRose has given a timetable of "mid-to-late" summer, according to local news outlet WLWT, which could bring us to a few weeks from now. NBC News also reported last month he's expected to announce "soon."
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