With less than a week away before Election Day, and eight days since the one disastrous debate between Democrat John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican, the momentum keeps favoring Oz as the two candidates vie to see who will replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA).
Decision Desk HQ, which moved the race to the "Toss Up" category after going back and forth between that and "Lean Democratic," on Wednesday tweeted that Oz is now even more favored. Presently, Oz has a 53.9 percent chance of winning, to Fetterman's 46.1 percent chance. Oz has been riding a high since October 29.
Mehmet Oz (R) has a 54% chance of winning Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race- his largest ever lead since we released our forecast in July.
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 2, 2022
Watch our latest model video for the latest updates: https://t.co/e7RlIzrF8S pic.twitter.com/hzBPDsOeKn
Well! We said that this Pennsylvania Senate race would be one to watch! @DecisionDeskHQ now shows @DrOz riding momentum and a higher percentage of winning! pic.twitter.com/adK2kgqz5z
— Rebecca Downs (@RebeccaRoseGold) November 2, 2022
In a Decision Desk HQ video posted Wednesday, Dr. Liberty Vittert noted that their decision to give Oz a higher percentage of winning came after seeing post-debate polls, adding "you can make your own conclusion about how the debate affected Fetterman's outcome." Post-debate polls indeed do favor Oz.
As Spencer highlighted last week, Decision Desk HQ also changed their forecast to favor Republicans when it comes to winning control of the Senate. They are already largely expected to win control of the House.
To introduce the video, Dr. Vittert emphasized "it has been a huge week for the GOP across the board," which included a mention of how Republicans now have "a real edge" in controlling the Senate. While she emphasized that this is still only about a 51 percent chance, she also made clear "the data definitely points to the momentum for the GOP in the closing days of the campaign."
RealClearPolitics (RCP), which also has the race as a "Toss Up" and projects a "GOP Hold," shows Fetterman down to a +1.2 lead.
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