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Tipsheet

New Poll Shows Pennsylvania Senate Race a Dead Heat

Townhall Media

Yet another poll shows that the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania is close, where Democratic John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet Oz, his Republican opponent, are running to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA). The race has been increasingly one worth paying attention, and likely will remain so.

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This latest poll comes from Muhlenberg College/Morning Call, where Fetterman is in the lead with 48 percent to Oz's 42 percent. The poll was conducted September 13-16, with 420 likely voters. That it had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points means Fetterman's lead is within that margin. 

Even more telling is that the poll found there is a larger discrepancy between Fetterman and Oz's favorable ratings. Fetterman has a better favorable rating, with 44 percent of respondents viewing him favorably, while 41 percent view him unfavorably. A majority of respondents however, at 53 percent, view Oz unfavorably, while 29 percent view him favorably. This goes to show that a candidate's favorable ratings don't always correlate with polling. 

When it comes to the gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Shapiro has a larger lead over Republican Doug Mastriano than Fetterman does over Oz, with 52 percent to Mastriano's 41 percent. 

The poll also found that voters are pretty much evenly split when it comes to the congressional ballot, in that 46 percent intend to support the Republican candidate, while 45 percent support the Democratic candidate. 

Respondents are evenly split when it comes to 45 percent affiliate as Republicans and 45 percent affiliate as Democrats. 

Forecasters still have the race favoring Fetterman as "Lean Democratic," though Inside Elections has it as a "Toss-Up." Decision Desk HQ, which seems to go back and forth on a pretty regular basis, also has the race as "Lean Democratic," and gives Fetterman a 69.7 percent chance. 

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Polls nevertheless show Fetterman's lead within many margins of error, or close to it. RealClearPolitics has it at +4.2 for Fetterman. Oz's polling has also improved over time. Polling done by the Trafalgar Group, for instance, showed Oz had a polling shift of over 3 percentage points, as Fetterman has gone from leading by 4.9 percentage points in August, to leading by 1.9 percentage points in September's poll

Perhaps that's why Fetterman is releasing desperately repetitive ads focusing on how Dr. Oz is not from Pennsylvania. 

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