Poll Update Proves There's Been a Shift in Pennsylvania's Senate Race

Of all the key Senate races to watch, and there certainly are some battleground, the Pennsylvania race to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) may truly be the one to watch. For how likely it supposedly has been that Democrat John Fetterman would win, it turns out a shift in polls shows the momentum may not be on his side, but rather that of his Republican opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz.

It's already been nearly a month since the Trafalgar Group poll was released showing Fetterman's lead against Dr. Oz at just under 5 percentage points. His lead has now shrunk to being less than 2 percentage points.

PENNSYLVANIA SENATE POLLING TRENDS By Trafalgar Group

August 18
(D) John Fetterman 48.6% (+4.9)
(R) Mehmet Oz 43.5%

September 15
(D) John Fetterman 47.7% (+1.8)
(R) Mehmet Oz 45.9%

? 3.1 point shift towards Dr. Oz pic.twitter.com/v7qkdzWtXW
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 16, 2022

This most recent poll has Fetterman leading with 47.7 percent, compared to Dr. Oz's 45.9 percent. There's also far fewer undecided respondents this time. While 4.6 percent said they were unsure, that number is now at 2.4 percent. The amount of respondents who say they would vote for another candidate has tripled from 0.5 percent to 1.7 percent this month. As Interactive Polls pointed out in highlighting the polls, Oz has had a 3.1 percentage point shift.

New independent @trafalgar_group
#PASen #Poll (9/13-15) shows neck&neck race w/small #Fetterman lead #papol:

47.7% @JohnFetterman
45.9% @DrOz
3.5% @Erik4Senate
0.5% Other
2.4% Und

See Report: https://t.co/7fkeZ6WDcu pic.twitter.com/OzLPjxw6w8
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 16, 2022

The poll was conducted September 13-15, with 1,078 likely general election voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percent, which means Fetterman's lead is tellingly within that margin of error.

It's been a particularly momentous week for the Fetterman-Oz race. On Sunday, which was the 21st anniversary of September 11, to which Pennsylvania has its own personal connection, Fetterman held an abortion rally during which he introduced himself as "Fetterwoman" to appeal to the crowd. He also had significant issues speaking.

Despite the obviousness of Fetterman's health concerns, NBC News' Ben Groggins tried to provide cover for the Democratic candidate, accusing Republican strategist Greg Price of "doctoring" clips, which Price has denied.

Here’s my full segment on @IngrahamAngle tonight responding to NBC News trying to censor my viral videos of John Fetterman and accusing me of doctoring them.
pic.twitter.com/ClKXfD5ACb
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 16, 2022

Fetterman on Wednesday has reportedly agreed to debate Dr. Oz on October 25, just two weeks before the election, but his list of demands call into question whether he's serious or not.

This most recent poll also showed a shift in the gubernatorial election between Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Doug Mastriano.

Shapiro's lead is exactly at just 2 percentage points, while 1.5 percent say they'd select another candidate and 2.8 percent are undecided.

New independent @trafalgar_group
#PAGov #Poll (9/13-15) shows tightening w/narrow Shapiro lead #papol:

47.4% @JoshShapiroPA
45.4% @dougmastriano
2.8% @matthackenburg
1.5% Other
2.8% Und

See Report: https://t.co/KQ3LNKJsnd pic.twitter.com/D1HEHGR7EP
— The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) September 16, 2022

As is the case with the Fetterman-Oz race, support for the Republican candidate grew, while it fell for the Democratic candidate. The amount of undecided voters also significantly fell, while it grew for those who said they would select another candidate.

New independent @trafalgar_group #PAGov #Poll (8/14-18) shows Shapiro w/the lead #papol:

48.6% @JoshShapiroPA
44.7% @dougmastriano
1.1% @matthackenburg
0.8% Other
4.8% Und

See Report: https://t.co/NA2r6RCjHh pic.twitter.com/GZ99AwsxJg
— The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) August 21, 2022

The RealClearPolitics average for Fetterman is now at just +4, while it's +5.4 for Shapiro.

When speaking to Townhall last month about the polling results from that time period, Robert Cahaly, the founder of the Trafalgar Group, said that he believed the Republican candidates could make indeed make up the difference.