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Tipsheet

RSLC Expanding Its Targets for Chamber Flips As Democrats in Disarray

Screenshot, RSLC

In March, the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) released a memo with an outlook for how they looked to target state legislative races and what gains they looked to make in the upcoming November midterm elections. Polling is looking so hopeful, though, that the RSLC has updated ratings to include Nevada, Maine, Oregon, and Washington as states where there are "Opportunities to Flip Chambers." A press release from the RSLC that this update is "yet another display of how state Republicans have momentum ahead of November’s elections."

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This update comes as polling was released last week, as I covered, which shows Republicans in those states are either slightly ahead of Democrats, or are within the margin of error. State Democrats as well President Joe Biden are also all underwater in those states. 

All four states are under Democratic trifectas, though it's worth mentioning that that may change, since the Oregon gubernatorial race especially is competitive. 

These states had previously been billed as where the RSLC was hoping to make "meaningful gains in liberal strongholds."

"Even in states that President Biden won by double digits in 2020, Democrat majorities are anything but safe," said RSLC President Dee Duncan in a statement. "Americans are looking to their state legislatures to serve as a check and balance on the President’s failing economic policies, giving stateRepublicans an opening to go on offense in places we normally don’t contest. While flipping chambers in these deep blue states will be an uphill battle, we are committed to maximizing the favorable political environment by expanding our map and making Democrats sweat to defend every inch of ground they currently hold."

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President Joe Biden's popularity--or lack thereof--has led to concerns that the upcoming November midterms will be even more problematic for Democrats, a "doomsday," as The Hill wrote earlier this week. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) appears delusional in believing that Biden's popularity ratings won't affect Democrats, though many at the congressional level don't want to campaign with the president, including Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) who is running for re-election and Rep. Tim Ryan, who is running for Ohio's open Senate seat against JD Vance. Such Democrats appear to read the writing on the wall. 

At the state level, RSLC last month put out a press release highlighting how the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) does not appear to be on the same page. Last month, DLCC's President Jessica Post shared with POLITICO she wanted Biden to campaign. "We have a great relationship with the Biden White House, so we hope that translates into seeing President Biden out campaigning for us… for state legislatures," Post said.

"Opportunities to Flip Chambers" currently include Colorado; Maine; the Minnesota House; Nevada; Oregon; and Washington. 

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Those states with "Possibilities for Meaningful Gains in Liberal Strongholds" include Illinois; Maryland; New Mexico; and New York. 

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