Ever since somebody leaked the Dobbs v. Jackson draft opinion now over two months ago showing that the U.S. Supreme Court was using the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Democrats have been hoping the abortion issue would help them in the upcoming midterm elections, now just a little over four months away.
Most of the recent press releases from the DNC focus on abortion, including how "DNC Highlights Critical Midterm Issues at 2022 Essence Festival," which took place in New Orleans. That release, from Tuesday, noted that DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison "delivered remarks stressing the importance of the upcoming November midterms, and highlighted what is at stake – especially after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade."
Shortly after the decision officially came down, a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that the decision made Democrats 78 percent more likely to vote in the midterm elections. This isn't entirely surprising, but it's also worth questioning how much of an effect the decision will really have, and for how long. Even Jennifer Rubin acknowledged the situation. Her June 30 headline in a column for The Washington Post read "Democrats’ polling has improved since Dobbs. But how long will it last?"
Despite Democratic desperation to make the midterms about abortion, the polls paint a different reality.
On Tuesday, Monmouth University released a poll showing how when respondents were asked "what is the biggest concern facing your family right now," abortion accounted for only 5 percent, making it the fifth highest issue respondents cared about. Inflation was the issue respondents were most concerned with, coming in at 33 percent. Next was gas prices at 15 percent, the economy at 9 percent, and then "Everyday bills, groceries, etc.," which came in at 6 percent.
Patrick Murray, the director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, is quoted as emphasizing the importance respondents place on the issues they do. "Economic concerns tend to rise to the top of the list of family concerns, as you might expect, but the singular impact of inflation is really hitting home right now. And most Americans are blaming Washington for their current pain," he said.
That poll was conducted June 23-June 27 with 978 adults. It has a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
There's also more bad news for Democrats out of the June Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. As I highlighted earlier on Tuesday, a major takeaway from the poll is that 71 percent of respondents don't want Biden to run again in 2024.
That poll also found that abortion, under the category of "Women's Rights" was the fifth most important issue for respondents, at 17 percent. "Price increases / inflation" was the top issue at 40 percent, while 29 percent chose "Economy / jobs." In third place was guns at 20 percent, followed by immigration at 19 percent.
Asked another way, 44 percent said inflation remained their greatest concern, while 18 percent said it was their second greatest concern. Fourteen percent said "Abortion rights" was their greatest concern, while 11 percent said it was their second greatest concern.
When it comes to who respondents were more likely to vote for, the poll found that 36 percent said the decision made them more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate, while 36 percent said it made them more likely to vote for the Republican candidate. Twenty-nine percent said it had no effect. Nearly a majority of those who identify as Independents/Others, at 48 percent, said it has no effect. These are not figures Democrats want to see.
The poll gained particular attention for how respondents feel about abortion. While multiple polls consistently show that a majority of respondents oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, as this poll did, another main takeaway was that a plurality, at 44 percent, believe abortion standards should be set by "the legislatures of each individual state." Just 25 percent said the Supreme Court should decide such standards.
When respondents are asked about Roe in the context of whether the states or the courts should decide abortion laws, they consistently say the states should decide, indicating they are opposed to Roe and ought to support the Court having overturned the decision.
When it comes to abortion laws, a plurality, at 37 percent believe their state should allow abortion "only in case of rape or incest." The next highest response is the 23 percent who say "up to 15 weeks." It's also worth highlighting that even Democratic respondents, 60 percent of them, want abortion restricted before 15 weeks, while 40 percent say it should be available for 23 weeks or longer. This puts the Democratic Party's position of abortion on demand for all nine months without legal limit at odds with voters, as this poll, and others, have consistently shown. Just 10 perfect of respondents hold the position that abortion should be available "up to 9 months."
That poll was conducted June 28-June 29 with 1,308 registered voters.
When it comes to the overall lookout for Democrats, Newsweek on Tuesday morning published Darragh Roche's "Just How Much Trouble Are the Democrats In? These Polls Give You a Clue," which highlighted FiveThirtyEight's tracker.
At one point, Roche wrote:
Democrats are in a significantly worse position than they were at the same time two years ago. On July 4, 2020, they had 49.2 percent support in FiveThirtyEight's generic congressional ballot compared to 40.4 percent for Republicans.
The party retained control of the House of Representatives in November 2020 as then-candidate Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump in the presidential election. Democrats then gained a razor-thin majority in the Senate by winning two elections in Georgia in January 2021.
It's worth emphasizing just how minuscule the Democratic majority is in the House as well, which FiveThirtyEight projects Republicans to win control of, while the Senate is considered a toss-up.
Roche highlighted how Republicans have just a 1.5 percent lead on the congressional generic ballot for the November midterms, also according to FiveThirtyEight. It's worth pointing out, though, that the polls underestimated Republican performance in 2010 and 2014, which resulted in a GOP pick up of 63 seats and 13 seats, respectively.
At this rate, it's certainly safe to expect a red wave.
Pollsters Underestimated Republicans in early polling in 2010 and 2014
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 5, 2022
At this time in:
July 2010: Dems led by 0.3%
Nov 2010: GOP won by +6.8%
July 2014: Dems led by 1.2%
Nov 2014: GOP won by 5.7%
? Average early polling Error: D+7
GOP leads by 2 points now... pic.twitter.com/v8HyPlAVoZ
