Poll after poll looks bad for President Joe Biden, and we're only inching closer to the November midterm elections, which are now less than five months away. Leah highlighted on Friday how Biden was at his lowest RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, with a 39.5 percent approval rating that morning, while 54.8 percent disapproved. It's continued to go down, and as of Monday night, sits at 38.9 percent, while 54.6 percent disapprove. There looks to be little hope for Biden's chances to improve, especially with the dire straits this country is in economically while the administration gaslights away and Democrats focus on the January 6 select committee public hearings.
It's also because Biden is losing ground with key constituents. Poll after poll shows this and yet the administration doesn't seem to be able to do much, if anything, about it, since polls continue to come out showing the same results. Among those demographics Biden has really lost ground with is Hispanics and young voters, as I highlighted in my VIP piece from last Friday.
Among those polls contributing to Biden's low approval rating came from POLITICO/Morning Consult. The poll, conducted June 4-5, was released on June 8. The takeaway from Eli Yokley with Morning Consult was the same as so many other polls, that "Biden’s Approval Rating Sinks to New Low." The subheadline even noted that "Trump was markedly more popular at a similar point in his presidency," which has proved to be a real sore spot for Biden, as a recent damning report from NBC News revealed. Leah and I have also examined those polling numbers in other VIP pieces.
This particular poll, which surveyed 2,000 registered voters, showed Biden at a 39 percent approval rating, while 58 percent disapproved. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. It was the first time in his presidency that he polled below 40 percent for this particular poll. A plurality, at 42 percent, "strongly disapprove" of Biden's job performance.
"Biden’s popularity, or lack thereof, mirrors Trump’s standing in June 2020, when the nation was grappling with the twin crises of the pandemic and the response to the murder of George Floyd," the poll's write-up notes.
Another takeaway includes the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats. "Republicans are far more strident in their disdain for Biden than Democrats are in their support: 80% of GOP voters 'strongly disapprove' of Biden’s job handling, compared with 37% of Democrats who 'strongly approve' of it," the poll write-up points out.
On Monday morning, Yokley published another explainer takeaway, this time when it comes to how young voters are truly souring on the president. Yokley referred to the demographic as "a big weak spot" now.
What's particularly worrisome for Biden and the Democrats when it comes to the midterm election they're already expected to lose and lose terribly, is that those voters helped send Biden to the White House. Remember the 81 million votes Biden got, even more than former President Barack Obama that the media paraded around? Those were in large part due to these young voters now deeply souring on this administration.
As Yokley notes:
America’s youngest voters accounted for the biggest turnout increase of any age group between the past two presidential elections, helping deliver full control of Washington to President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats.
But with just under five months until the midterm elections, it’s this group of voters who present a major challenge for the Democratic Party’s fraught efforts to hold onto Congress this year: Morning Consult Political Intelligence tracking shows Biden’s decline is especially grim among 18- to 34-year-olds. The Democrats among them are less likely than their older peers to see him as prioritizing the country’s biggest problems or holding true to his campaign promises, threatening to stunt base enthusiasm ahead of the consequential campaign season.
Biden went from a 61 percent approval rating among those voters ages 18-34 at the start of his presidency, to a 41 percent approval rating. His disapproval rating of just 24 percent from January of last year has now jumped to 52 percent. Just 10 percent of the age demographic say they "strongly approve" of Biden's job performance.
Yokley noted in his subheadline that "Only 28% of the youngest Democrats strongly approve of Biden’s job performance, down 31 points since he took office."
Even more concerning for this administration is that the drop in support is driven among young women. "Biden’s decline among Democratic voters ages 18-34 has been driven largely by women: 61% approve of his job performance, compared with 78% of men," Yokely also noted.
Women overall, actually, have soured on Biden, as only 38 percent of women somewhat or strongly approve of his job performance, while 59 percent somewhat or strongly disapprove. A plurality, at 43 percent, say they "strongly disapprove." As it is with the youngest voters, women disapprove of Biden in greater numbers than men do.
Democrats are truly doomed come November. This poll shows the Democratic and Republican candidates both with 42 percent support from voters. "The GOP has made gains on the generic ballot since Morning Consult began tracking the question this cycle," Yokely noted. Other polls show Republicans with more so of an advantage.
FiveThirtyEight's aggregate has Republicans with an advantage of 2.4, enjoying 45 percent, while Democrats are at 42.6 percent. RCP has Republicans up by 3.5, enjoying 46.2 percent while Democrats are at 42.7 percent.
