We are getting that much closer to the midterm elections, which are now less than eight months away. The drama of particularly poor polling as well as a record-high amount of retirements not seen in decades continues, when the Democrats are already doomed come this November as a matter of historical trend.
The 30th House Democrat, Rep. Kathleen Rice (NY), announced her retirement earlier this week.
Quick to take notice of Rice's announcement was the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), which has been tracking these retirements. "Everyone is too afraid to run as a House Democrat because they know their caucus is about to see mass layoffs this November,” said CLF Communications Director Calvin Moore.
The 2022 elections are coming up quick and Democrats need decide now whether they want to retire or stick around and get fired."
The high amount of retirements was the subject of analysis from CNN's Chris Cillizza, who has been warning for months now how troubling the midterm elections look for Democrats.
"Here's why Democrats' chances of winning in November are slipping," he wrote on Wednesday.
Thirty-one retirements is not just a lot, but, as Cilizza referenced, "Democrats have already seen more retirements in this cycle than the last two elections combined."
On how it could impact the midterms, he goes on to write:
There is a solid -- if not perfect -- correlation between high retirement levels and House seat losses. In 1992, for example, Republicans netted 10 House seats in the general election, according to Brookings' Vital Statistics on Congress. In 1978, the Republican gain was 15. In 1976, however, Democrats actually gained a seat despite the 31 retirements from within their ranks.
Democrats' issues are compounded by the fact that Republicans have kept their own retirements very low. If no other House Republican walks away this year, the 13 calling it quits will be the party's lowest total since 1988.
Add it up and you see LOTS of Democratic vulnerability and very little Republican danger.
According to the Cook Political Report's rankings, there are 38 competitive Democratic-held seats compared to just 19 Republican-held seats. With the House Democratic majority so thin, that disparity in competitive seats is a very ominous omen for Democrats' chances this fall.
The simple fact is this: Democrats see the writing on the wall. Many are opting to retire rather than either lose a reelection bid or become a member of the minority party in the House in January 2023. And that is causing a vicious cycle that further narrows Democrats' chances this November.
It's not merely retiring Democrats who are lamenting their party's fate, but even those in the White House. In public, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki and even President Joe Biden himself have maintained a narrative that they will win the midterms. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi claims the same, as she did during Sunday's episode of ABC's "This Week."
In private is another story though, as highlighted in an NBC News piecefrom earlier this week by Jonathan Allen and Natasha Korecki.
"If he doesn’t take a new tack soon, it may be impossible for him to deliver for the public, help his party in November or move an agenda in the final three years of his term, according to a dozen lawmakers, White House officials and veteran Democratic Party operatives who spoke to NBC News about their concerns," the piece reads early on.
Even though those quoted mentioned a need for change in staffing, particularly Chief of Staff Ron Klain, Biden remains stubborn on that front.
The piece went on to mention, in a direct reference to the midterms:
Democrats say the signs of infighting matter, because Biden can ill afford to preside over dysfunction in his administration when he is still trying to convince the public that he can unify and run the country. There is some level of jockeying within every White House, where ambitious high achievers can clash with one another in a crucible of high stakes for both careers and the country.
That is only aggravated by the public dissatisfaction with Biden.
Inside the White House, some aides fear that Biden won’t be able to make changes in time to help the party in the midterms or himself in 2024. So far, even amid a handful of high-profile departures, Biden’s top team has stayed in place.
“He has blind spots with staff,” said a second White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak on the record. “He should not have the second-worst approval rating of all time given the positive things that he’s done. If that were me, I would re-evaluate the advice that I’m getting and the people that I surround myself with. I don’t see that happening.”
The same official lamented a sense of strategic drift and said that “everyone’s resigned” to Democrats’ getting thwacked in the midterms.
“It feels like there is a wave coming and no one is doing anything to stop it,” the official said.
Some, but not all, get it. MSNBC's Mehdi Hasan put the blame on Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), moderates who have been particularly derided in their party as of late.
“We all know this,” he says about something that is delusionally wrong.
— Rebecca Downs (@RebeccaRoseGold) February 18, 2022
Our friends at Twitchy did a thorough job highlighting some of the best responses to that delusional take, including how Hasan doubled down.
Then there's those poll numbers.
As Guy highlighted earlier on Friday, there's some particularly bad news on the polling and historical trend fronts in that Biden is now polling where former President Donald Trump did at this point in his presidency. According to FiveThirtyEight, that poll average is 41.4 percent.
Republicans went on to lose control of the House as a result of the 2018 midterms, after they lost 40 seats. Though bad, it was at least less catastrophic than the 63 House seats Democrats lost during the 2010 midterm elections when Barack Obama was in office, and the 52 House seats Democrats lost during the 1994 midterm elections under Bill Clinton.
Remember the narrative from pollsters, some sighing in relief or bending over backward to remind that as bad as Biden was doing, at least Trump was worse? They're able to say that less and less now.
