As Matt covered at length on Wednesday, it's looking increasingly like former President Donald Trump is going to run again in 2024, especially if the percentage of Republicans who want him to is any indication. And, if President Joe Biden runs again, despite being the incumbent, Biden is not necessarily favored to win. A poll released Wednesday by Grinnell College National Poll shows that, if the election were to be held today, each candidate has 40 percent support from likely voters, while 14 percent would choose someone else.
While Biden has more support from his base than Trump does – 87 percent of Democrats say they'd vote for Biden while 80 percent of Republicans say they'll vote for Trump – Trump leads with Independents. It's a substantial lead too, with 45 percent favoring Trump and 28 percent favoring Biden.
The poll's release also includes pollster insight:
“In 2020 exit polling, President Biden won independent voters by a 54% to 41% margin,” said J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Company. “If the election were held today, our poll shows former President Trump winning that group 45% to 28%. It is a massive shift in a demographic that helped carry Biden to victory less than two years ago.”
“The president has time to turn his political fortunes around,” said Hanson. “But if it doesn’t happen soon, Democrats are likely to face a serious reckoning in the 2022 midterm elections.”
The role of Independents can't be emphasized enough. Poll after poll shows how deeply they've soured with the Biden administration, which is contributing to the president's devastating poll numbers. As Selzer notes above, and as I covered in a VIP piece back in August, how Independents voted in 2020 really did make a difference.
Last year's exit poll analysis from The Washington Post regarded Biden's win with Independents as one of the "the biggest demographic shifts in the 2020 election."
Another exit poll analysis, from CBS News, said Biden's win with Independents was "the largest margin recorded among this group since Bill Clinton won independents in his reelection bid in 1996."
Trump won narrowly with Independents in 2016 against Hillary Clinton by 4 points.
Earlier this month, Scott noted that Trump is also the betting favorite to win the 2024 election.
And last month, a poll from Harvard CAPS/Harris showed that registered voters hold a more favorable view of Trump and see him as the better president.
Could Trump come back to defeat Biden in a rematch of 2020? Anything's possible. It's also happened before. Grover Cleveland was both the 22nd and 24th president. He won the 1884 election and lost the 1888 election against Benjamin Harrison, but then came back to defeat President Harrison for a rematch in the 1892 election.
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