Victor Davis Hanson, a military historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, said the biggest test of the Iran deal will be how the United States enforces it, as the full text of the memorandum of understanding was finally released Wednesday.
Hanson said he's not entirely worried about the core issues, like issues surrounding the enriched uranium or opening the Strait of Hormuz. He explained that Iran needs the Strait open nearly as much as the rest of the world due to the economic pressures currently on the country, and U.S. intelligence can track enriched uranium so precisely that if Iran moves toward building a nuclear weapon, the U.S. can immediately resume a bombing campaign.
However, the very real threat of those attacks, or other serious U.S. action against Iran, will determine how closely Iran complies with the rest of the agreement and broader American interests.
Victor Davis Hanson says the biggest test now is enforcement, arguing any Iranian violation must be met with an overwhelming response to keep the regime in check:
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“The two chief issues I’m not as worried about. I think we know where the enriched uranium is. It’s sealed. We have… pic.twitter.com/3ldx4evPB7
"So the two chief issues I'm not so worried about," Hanson said. "I think we know where the enriched uranium is, it's sealed, we have great intelligence, we can bomb it, bomb it, bomb it, we can hit more of their industrial complexes if they cheat, and they will open the Strait of Hormuz because they're just about broke."
"The other things are known unknowns. It's going to be more difficult to ensure they're not giving money to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. That's more murky, and we don't know what they're going to do in Lebanon. And then, of course, we don't know what's going on in Iran, because this is the first real air war," he continued. "We don't have boots on the ground, we don't have embeds, but we will learn very shortly, and we're going to get an idea of just how much damage was done. I think it might have been half a trillion dollars or more in the nuclear military-industrial complex."
We don't know the mood of the people. Are they going to come out and say to their own government, you mean we lost everything we had, and now you could have done this peacefully? Instead, you acted so tough, you were humiliated, and now we're broke and destitute, and all you had to do was agree in the first place. And then we don't know how the government will react to that. There could be a widespread uprising. We don't know what we're going to do if they try to kill another 40,000 people.
"So the main denominator, though, that has to be ironclad is we have to react disproportionately any time they break the agreement," Hanson added.
This comes as concerns have been raised about the memorandum, which essentially serves as an extended 60-day ceasefire to allow negotiating parties to work out the technical details of a more lasting peace deal. The concerns primarily center on the fact that those technical details remain unworked, including how the United States will ensure Iran abandons its nuclear weapons pursuit, how it will prevent Iran from funding its terror proxies in the region, and how the agreement will serve as more than empty commitments by the Iranians.
The Trump administration has maintained that enforcement will hinge on financial incentives: a $300 billion reconstruction fund, an upfront arrangement allowing Iran to immediately begin selling its oil, and U.S. vows to free up sanctioned money and assets upon Iran's compliance. President Trump also said Wednesday he has no problem resuming military strikes if Iran begins to play games.